Air Force at Utah State - 2016 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 24th 2016 (10:15 PM EDT)
Air Force -3 (53.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 27 - Utah State: 20 (Mountain West)

Falcons (10 - 3) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USU 2nd straight Home Game
AFA coming off BYE
USU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ AFA -9)
Projected Score: AFA: 27 - USU: 33 (60)
AFA Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
AFA Travel: 413 miles

Aggies (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Air Force vs Abilene Christian	-44.0
Sat 9/10	Air Force vs Georgia State	-22.5	52.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24	Air Force at Utah State	-3.0	53.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Air Force vs Navy	-10.5	50.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Air Force at Wyoming	-13.5	50.0	L 26 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/15	Air Force vs New Mexico	-15.0	53.5	L 40 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/22	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-17.5	58.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Fri 10/28	Air Force at Fresno State	-13.5	51.0	W 31 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/5	Air Force at Army	-3.0	46.5	W 31 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Air Force vs Colorado State	-6.0	54.0	W 49 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/19	Air Force at San José State	-11.0	54.5	W 41 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/25	Air Force vs Boise State	+9.0	63.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Fri 12/30	Air Force vs South Alabama	-14.0	54.0	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Utah State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Utah State vs Weber State	-21.0
Sat 9/10	Utah State at USC	+14.0	54.5	L 7 - 45	U	N
Fri 9/16	Utah State vs Arkansas State	-8.0	56.0	W 34 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Utah State vs Air Force	+3.0	53.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/1	Utah State at Boise State	+19.5	60.5	L 10 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Utah State at Colorado State	-6.0	53.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Utah State vs Fresno State	-14.0	51.0	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Fri 10/28	Utah State vs San Diego State	+3.0	45.0	L 13 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/5	Utah State at Wyoming	+4.0	55.5	L 28 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/12	Utah State vs New Mexico	-2.5	57.0	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/19	Utah State at Nevada	-5.0	56.5	L 37 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/26	Utah State at BYU	+17.0	51.5	L 10 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.25	47%	29.8	48%	3.2	319	40%	132	3.87	.18	37%	30.3	33%	38%	3.58	38	1.6	1.3
USU	.12	41%	30.9	41%	2.63	165	39%	206	3.39	.1	39%	28.7	39%	36%	3.65	58.9	1.8	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	14	29.8	32.2	46.9%	3.87	1.6	21	451	319	132	5.5	80%	18%	48%	40%	2%	.25
USU Defense	13	28.7	19.5	38.6%	3.65	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	59%	39%	39%	36%	1%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	14	30.3	32.8	36.6%	3.58	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	33%	38%	2%	.18
USU Offense	13	30.9	38.3	40.8%	3.39	1.8	19	371	165	206	4.5	50%	49%	41%	39%	2%	.12

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	14	32:20	21.4	43%	61%	3.8	38	1.6	1.3	0	0	2	29.1
Utah State	13	28:45	19.4	35%	50%	6.4	58.9	1.8	1.7	0	0	4	31.7

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	14	80%	48%	58.3	319.1	5.5	45	.2	3.2	80%	0%	0.97
USU Defense	13	59%	39%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.58	67%	0%	0.97

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	14	53%	33%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.38	71%	0%	1.31
USU Offense	13	50%	41%	37	165.1	4.5	22	.1	2.63	70%	0%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	14	18%	40%	6.2	12.1	131.9	10.9	21.2	15	12	.49	2.3	26%	33%	.37	2%	1.9
USU Defense	13	39%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.2	1.7	34%	27%	.22	1%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	14	46%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.33	1.9	38%	31%	.33	2%	2.1
USU Offense	13	49%	39%	17.6	31	205.5	6.6	11.7	21	10	.15	1.6	36%	30%	.26	2%	2.1

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #181
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2016 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4 #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #45
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #79

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: Utah State: 0.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 4.4 Utah State: -4.4

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: 0.3 NR
Utah State's Offense Rating: NR
Utah State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Utah State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Utah State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4 #86
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #96
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #59

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Utah State 33
Air Force 27

Projected Total Points: 60

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Utah State	49	Air Force	30	Air Force -4	Utah State	51.5	Over
2023	09/15	Air Force	39	Utah State	21	Air Force -9	Air Force	45.5	Over
2022	10/08	Utah State	34	Air Force	27	Air Force -11.5	Utah State	54.0	Over
2021	09/18	Air Force	45	Utah State	49	Air Force -9	Utah State	54.0	Over
2020	12/03	Utah State	7	Air Force	35	Air Force -13.5	Air Force	51.0	Under
2019	10/26	Air Force	31	Utah State	7	Air Force -4	Air Force	58.5	Under
2018	09/22	Utah State	42	Air Force	32	Utah State -10	Push	59.5	Over
2017	11/25	Air Force	38	Utah State	35	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	57.5	Over
2016	09/24	Utah State	20	Air Force	27	Air Force -3	Air Force	53.5	Under
2015	11/14	Air Force	35	Utah State	28	Utah State -1.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2014	10/11	Utah State	34	Air Force	16	Utah State -7.5	Utah State	0
2013	09/07	Air Force	20	Utah State	52	Utah State -8	Utah State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	6	5	7 Overs
Air Force	6	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	7 - 4	4 - 1	3 - 3
Road Teams	4 - 8	4 - 7	3 - 3	1 - 4

(#) AFA at (#) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	USU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#58	#86
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#181	#111
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Air Force Injury Report

Utah State Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#45	#59
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Utah State on Offense


CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#96	#79
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Utah State Run Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Utah State Pass Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Air Force 3.0 (53.5)
Air Force won at Utah State this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Air Force last year (49-30)
Air Force beat Utah State in 2023 (39-21)

AFA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

USU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD