Air Force at Army - 2016 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at Army Black KnightsArmy logo
Saturday, November 5th 2016 (12:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -3 (46.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Air Force 31 - Army: 12

 
Falcons (10 - 3) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 35 - 26 (31 - 25 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA 2nd straight Road Game
ARMY is playing their 5th straight game
AFA is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -4.5  (SP+ AFA -14.5)
Projected Score: AFA: 25 - ARMY: 31 (56)
AFA Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
AFA Travel: 1630 miles, 2 hrs behind
Black Knights (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 20 (37 - 18 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Air Force's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Air Force vs Abilene Christian-44.0
Sat 9/10 Air Force vs Georgia State-22.552.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24 Air Force at Utah State-3.053.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 10/1 Air Force vs Navy-10.550.5W 28 - 14UY
Sat 10/8 Air Force at Wyoming-13.550.0L 26 - 35ON
Sat 10/15 Air Force vs New Mexico-15.053.5L 40 - 45ON
Sat 10/22 Air Force vs Hawai'i-17.558.0L 27 - 34ON
Fri 10/28 Air Force at Fresno State-13.551.0W 31 - 21ON
Sat 11/5 Air Force at Army-3.046.5W 31 - 12UY
Sat 11/12 Air Force vs Colorado State-6.054.0W 49 - 46ON
Sat 11/19 Air Force at San José State-11.054.5W 41 - 38ON
Fri 11/25 Air Force vs Boise State+9.063.5W 27 - 20UY
Fri 12/30 Air Force vs South Alabama-14.054.0W 45 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Army's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2 Army at Temple+21.545.0W 28 - 13UY
Sat 9/10 Army vs Rice-7.052.0W 31 - 14UY
Sat 9/17 Army at UTEP-3.546.5W 66 - 14OY
Sat 9/24 Army at Buffalo-16.050.5L 20 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/8 Army at Duke+6.043.0L 6 - 13UN
Sat 10/15 Army vs Lafayette-33.0
Sat 10/22 Army vs North Texas-17.548.0L 18 - 35ON
Sat 10/29 Army at Wake Forest+8.042.0W 21 - 13UY
Sat 11/5 Army vs Air Force+3.046.5L 12 - 31UN
Sat 11/12 Army vs Notre Dame+11.555.5L 6 - 44UN
Sat 11/19 Army vs Morgan State-43.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/10 Army vs Navy+11.546.5W 21 - 17UY
Tue 12/27 Army vs North Texas-9.547.0W 38 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Army's Schedule
Important Stats (2016)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA.2148%35.249%3.2331740%1353.8.1637%26.235%38%3.2752.41.31.8
ARMY.2247%29.949%3.4232733%713.89.1341%19.840%40%3.2138.81.71.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
ARMY#10 (.32)51% (6)52% (7)3.57 (5)27843% (52)764.47 (19)#39 (.12)43% (89)45% (87)43% (88)2.57 (2)30.50.61.4



Overall Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1335.231.248.5%3.81.323452317135580%18%49%40%11%.21
ARMY Defense1319.81841%3.211.7 - - - - - 49%50%40%40%17%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1326.225.237%3.271.8 - - - - - 49%50%35%38%19%.16
ARMY Offense1329.936.647.1%3.891.721398327715.786%14%49%33%12%.22

Additional Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1334:0323.251%53%5.252.41.31.85.52.3330.9
Army1332:3121.251%61%4.438.81.71.74.81.6031.1
Run Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1380%49%63.6317.4539.183.2374%9%0.85
ARMY Defense1349%40% - - - - .062.5571%10%0.96
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1349%35% - - - - .022.3466%11%1.06
ARMY Offense1386%49%57.5326.55.745.253.4283%9%1.01

Pass Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1318%40%5.211.5134.811.725.8148.472.425%35%.282%1.6
ARMY Defense1350%40% - - - - - - 17.211.635%30%.187%1.7
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1350%38% - - - - - - 15.3238%33%.388%2.3
ARMY Offense1314%33%3.98.671.28.318.1710.042.126%33%.283%1.7

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #181
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2016 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4  #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #45
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #79

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force:    Army: -2.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 4.4   Army: -9.9




Army's Power Ratings
Army's Power Rating: -2.45 NR
Army's Offense Rating: NR
Army's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Army's 2016 Expected Record: -
Army's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9  #101
Army's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2  #109
Army's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2  #73

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 35.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 26.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Air Force's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Army 31
Air Force 25

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Army 32
Air Force 24

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Army 29
Air Force 26

Total Points: 55
Army Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.6
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Army's 2016 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Air Force17Army20Army -1.5Army48.5Under
202411/02Army20Air Force3Army -18Air Force38.5Under
202311/04Air Force3Army23Air Force -18.5Army32.0Under
202211/05Army7Air Force13Air Force -7Army40.5Under
202111/06Air Force14Army21Air Force -2.5Army37.5Under
202012/19Army10Air Force7Air Force -3Army37.0Under
201911/02Air Force17Army13Air Force -17Army44.5Under
201811/03Army17Air Force14Army -4.5Air Force41.5Under
201711/04Air Force0Army21Air Force -6.5Army54.5Under
201611/05Army12Air Force31Air Force -3Air Force46.5Under
201511/07Air Force20Army3Air Force -17.5Army50.5Under
201411/01Army6Air Force23Air Force -5.5Air Force0
201311/02Air Force42Army28Air Force -1.5Air Force0
201211/03Army41Air Force21
201111/05Air Force24Army14
201011/06Army22Air Force42
200911/07Air Force35Army7
200811/01Army7Air Force16
200711/03Air Force30Army10
200611/03Army7Air Force43
200511/05Air Force24Army27
200411/06Army22Air Force31
200311/08Air Force31Army3
200211/09Army30Air Force49
200111/03Air Force34Army24
200011/03Army27Air Force41
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Army980 Overs
Air Force17511 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 143 - 101 - 72 - 3
Road Teams14 - 1210 - 33 - 27 - 1

(#) AFA at (#) ARMY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAFAARMY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #58 #101
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #181 #132
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Air Force on Offense
CategoryCat
AFA OffARMY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #45 #73
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Air Force Run Game
CategoryCat
AFA OffARMY Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
CategoryCat
AFA OffARMY Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Army on Offense
CategoryCatARMY OffAFA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #109 #79
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Army Run Game
CategoryCat
ARMY OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Army Pass Game
CategoryCatARMY OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ARMY 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Blaik Field at Michie Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 56° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 10
Air Force 3.0 (46.5)
Air Force won at Army this year (31-12)

Previous Matchups
Army beat Air Force last year (20-3)
Army beat Air Force in 2023 (23-3)
Air Force beat Army in 2022 (13-7)

  
AFA's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

ARMY's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Army's Full Roster

ARMY's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD