New Mexico at Air Force - 2016 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo   New Mexico Lobos vs Air Force Falcons  Air Force logo
Saturday, October 15th 2016 (3:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -15 (53.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
New Mexico 45 - Air Force: 40  (Mountain West)

 
Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -5  (SP+ AFA -10)
Projected Score: UNM: 28 - AFA: 26 (54)
AFA Win prob: 85% | Cover: 46%
UNM Travel: 587 miles, 1 hrs behind
Falcons (10 - 3) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1 New Mexico vs South Dakota-11.0
Sat 9/10 New Mexico at New Mexico State-11.562.0L 31 - 32ON
Sat 9/17 New Mexico at Rutgers+3.556.0L 28 - 37ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1 New Mexico vs San José State-4.551.5W 48 - 41OY
Fri 10/7 New Mexico vs Boise State+16.561.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 10/15 New Mexico vs Air Force+15.053.5W 45 - 40OY
Sat 10/22 New Mexico vs UL Monroe-14.559.0W 59 - 17OY
Sat 10/29 New Mexico at Hawai'i+3.065.5W 28 - 21UY
Sat 11/5 New Mexico vs Nevada-11.058.5W 35 - 26ON
Sat 11/12 New Mexico at Utah State+2.557.0W 24 - 21UY
Sat 11/19 New Mexico at Colorado State+5.061.5L 31 - 49ON
Sat 11/26 New Mexico vs Wyoming+2.065.0W 56 - 35OY
Sat 12/17 New Mexico vs UTSA-7.554.0W 23 - 20UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Air Force's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Air Force vs Abilene Christian-44.0
Sat 9/10 Air Force vs Georgia State-22.552.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24 Air Force at Utah State-3.053.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 10/1 Air Force vs Navy-10.550.5W 28 - 14UY
Sat 10/8 Air Force at Wyoming-13.550.0L 26 - 35ON
Sat 10/15 Air Force vs New Mexico-15.053.5L 40 - 45ON
Sat 10/22 Air Force vs Hawai'i-17.558.0L 27 - 34ON
Fri 10/28 Air Force at Fresno State-13.551.0W 31 - 21ON
Sat 11/5 Air Force at Army-3.046.5W 31 - 12UY
Sat 11/12 Air Force vs Colorado State-6.054.0W 49 - 46ON
Sat 11/19 Air Force at San José State-11.054.5W 41 - 38ON
Fri 11/25 Air Force vs Boise State+9.063.5W 27 - 20UY
Fri 12/30 Air Force vs South Alabama-14.054.0W 45 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2015)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM.1639%27.140%2.5925233%1363.26.244%22.342%43%3.0964.61.61.9
AFA.2547%29.848%3.231940%1323.87.1837%30.333%38%3.58381.61.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2015
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense1327.127.538.9%3.261.6183882521365.172%27%40%33%2%.16
AFA Defense1430.327.836.6%3.581.3 - - - - - 53%46%33%38%2%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense1322.326.343.7%3.091.9 - - - - - 55%43%42%43%3%.2
AFA Offense1429.827.546.9%3.871.6214513191325.580%18%48%40%2%.25

Additional Stats 2015
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico1331:0818.138%73%6.864.61.61.900230.2
Air Force1432:2021.443%61%3.8381.61.300229.1
Run Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense1372%40%49.1252.25.142.162.5974%0%1.18
AFA Defense1453%33% - - - - .062.3871%0%1.31
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense1355%42% - - - - .082.9364%0%1.02
AFA Offense1480%48%58.3319.15.545.23.280%0%0.97

Pass Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense1327%33%9.117.71367.715614.191.934%25%.232%2
AFA Defense1446%38% - - - - - - 11.331.938%31%.332%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense1343%43% - - - - - - 14.381.831%34%.43%2
AFA Offense1418%40%6.212.1131.910.921.21512.492.326%33%.372%1.9

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico's 2016 Expected Record: -
New Mexico's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1  #89
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2  #47
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.6  #118

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico:    Air Force: 2.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -5.1   Air Force: 4.4




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 2.2 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #181
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2016 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4  #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #45
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #79

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2016 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
New Mexico 28
Air Force 26

Projected Total Points: 54
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Air Force3New Mexico20New Mexico -3.5New Mexico53.5Under
202410/12New Mexico52Air Force37New Mexico -7New Mexico56.0Over
202211/12Air Force35New Mexico3Air Force -21Air Force37.5Over
202110/02New Mexico10Air Force38Air Force -11.5Air Force46.0Over
202011/20Air Force28New Mexico0Air Force -9.5Air Force56.5Under
201911/23New Mexico22Air Force44Air Force -24New Mexico56.5Over
201811/10Air Force42New Mexico24Air Force -14Air Force55.0Over
201709/30New Mexico56Air Force38Air Force -3New Mexico50.5Over
201610/15Air Force40New Mexico45Air Force -15New Mexico53.5Over
201511/28New Mexico47Air Force35Air Force -10.5New Mexico53.5Over
201410/18Air Force35New Mexico31Air Force -12New Mexico0
201311/08New Mexico45Air Force37New Mexico -1.5New Mexico0
201210/20Air Force28New Mexico23
201110/29New Mexico0Air Force42
201011/13Air Force48New Mexico23
200909/19New Mexico13Air Force37
200810/23Air Force23New Mexico10
200710/25New Mexico34Air Force31
200609/30Air Force24New Mexico7
200511/19New Mexico24Air Force42
200410/09Air Force28New Mexico23
200311/15New Mexico24Air Force12
200209/07Air Force38New Mexico31
200110/27New Mexico52Air Force33
200010/20Air Force23New Mexico29
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force1548 Overs
New Mexico1082 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams17 - 88 - 45 - 23 - 2
Road Teams8 - 174 - 82 - 32 - 5

(#) UNM at (#) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNMAFA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #89 #58
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #104 #181
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
New Mexico on Offense
CategoryCat
UNM OffAFA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #47 #79
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
New Mexico Run Game
CategoryCat
UNM OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
New Mexico Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNM OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Air Force on Offense
CategoryCatAFA OffUNM Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #45 #118
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Air Force Run Game
CategoryCat
AFA OffUNM Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
CategoryCatAFA OffUNM Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Cotton Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
Air Force -15.0 (53.5)
New Mexico won at Air Force this year (45-40)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Air Force last year (20-3)
New Mexico beat Air Force in 2024 (52-37)

  
UNM's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

AFA's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD