Navy at Air Force - 2016 Matchup Preview

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons

Saturday, October 1st 2016 (3:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -10.5 (50.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 28 - Navy: 14

Midshipmen (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (26 - 30 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NAVY coming off BYE
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ NAVY -2.5)
Projected Score: NAVY: 29 - AFA: 28 (57)
AFA Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
NAVY Travel: 1516 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Falcons (10 - 3) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NAVY Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Navy's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Navy vs Fordham	-24.0
Sat 9/10	Navy vs UConn	-7.5	43.5	W 28 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/17	Navy at Tulane	-10.5	42.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	Navy at Air Force	+10.5	50.5	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/8	Navy vs Houston	+17.0	52.0	W 46 - 40	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Navy vs Memphis	+2.0	57.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Fri 10/28	Navy at South Florida	+9.0	66.0	L 45 - 52	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Navy vs Notre Dame	-4.5	63.0	W 28 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/12	Navy vs Tulsa	-1.0	71.5	W 42 - 40	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Navy at East Carolina	-8.0	64.0	W 66 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Navy at SMU	-8.0	65.5	W 75 - 31	O	Y
Sat 12/3	Navy vs Temple	-1.5	59.5	L 10 - 34	U	N
Sat 12/10	Navy vs Army	-11.5	46.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Fri 12/23	Navy vs Louisiana Tech	-1.0	67.0	L 45 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

Air Force's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Air Force vs Abilene Christian	-44.0
Sat 9/10	Air Force vs Georgia State	-22.5	52.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24	Air Force at Utah State	-3.0	53.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Air Force vs Navy	-10.5	50.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Air Force at Wyoming	-13.5	50.0	L 26 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/15	Air Force vs New Mexico	-15.0	53.5	L 40 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/22	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-17.5	58.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Fri 10/28	Air Force at Fresno State	-13.5	51.0	W 31 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/5	Air Force at Army	-3.0	46.5	W 31 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Air Force vs Colorado State	-6.0	54.0	W 49 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/19	Air Force at San José State	-11.0	54.5	W 41 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/25	Air Force vs Boise State	+9.0	63.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Fri 12/30	Air Force vs South Alabama	-14.0	54.0	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY	.34	49%	31.5	51%	3.51	327	35%	98	4.81	.16	44%	25	42%	45%	3.38	26.1	0.6	2.1
AFA	.25	47%	29.8	48%	3.2	319	40%	132	3.87	.18	37%	30.3	33%	38%	3.58	38	1.6	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Offense	13	31.5	25.8	49.5%	4.81	0.6	21	425	327	98	5.7	82%	16%	51%	35%	2%	.34
AFA Defense	14	30.3	27.8	36.6%	3.58	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	33%	38%	2%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Defense	13	25	30.2	44.1%	3.38	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	42%	45%	1%	.16
AFA Offense	14	29.8	27.5	46.9%	3.87	1.6	21	451	319	132	5.5	80%	18%	48%	40%	2%	.25

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Navy	13	32:48	20.9	50%	92%	3.1	26.1	0.6	2.1	0	0	0	33
Air Force	14	32:20	21.4	43%	61%	3.8	38	1.6	1.3	0	0	2	29.1

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense	13	82%	51%	57.5	326.7	5.7	53	.34	3.51	90%	0%	1.09
AFA Defense	14	53%	33%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.38	71%	0%	1.31

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense	13	50%	42%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.96	64%	0%	0.95
AFA Offense	14	80%	48%	58.3	319.1	5.5	45	.2	3.2	80%	0%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense	13	16%	35%	4.9	9.4	98.5	10.5	20	9	2	.4	2.4	25%	32%	.38	2%	1.8
AFA Defense	14	46%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.33	1.9	38%	31%	.33	2%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense	13	48%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.3	1.5	30%	36%	.43	1%	1.9
AFA Offense	14	18%	40%	6.2	12.1	131.9	10.9	21.2	15	12	.49	2.3	26%	33%	.37	2%	1.9

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: NR
Navy's Offense Rating: NR
Navy's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Navy's 2016 Expected Record: -
Navy's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.8 #52
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.8 #16
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #96

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: Air Force: 4.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 6.8 Air Force: 4.4

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 4.7 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #181
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2016 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4 #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #45
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #79

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2016 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Navy 29
Air Force 28

Projected Total Points: 57

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Navy	34	Air Force	31	Navy -13.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2024	10/05	Air Force	7	Navy	34	Navy -10	Navy	37.0	Over
2023	10/21	Navy	6	Air Force	17	Air Force -11	NA	34.0	Under
2022	10/01	Air Force	13	Navy	10	Air Force -14	Navy	38.0	Under
2021	09/11	Navy	3	Air Force	23	Air Force -6	Air Force	40.0	Under
2020	10/03	Air Force	40	Navy	7	Navy -6.5	Air Force	46.5	Over
2019	10/05	Navy	34	Air Force	25	Air Force -3	Navy	46.5	Over
2018	10/06	Air Force	35	Navy	7	Navy -2.5	Air Force	47.0	Under
2017	10/07	Navy	48	Air Force	45	Navy -8.5	Air Force	53.5	Over
2016	10/01	Air Force	28	Navy	14	Air Force -10.5	Air Force	50.5	Under
2015	10/03	Navy	33	Air Force	11	Navy -6	Navy	49.5	Under
2014	10/04	Air Force	30	Navy	21	Navy -4	Air Force	0
2013	10/05	Navy	28	Air Force	10	Navy -11	Navy	0
2012	10/06	Air Force	21	Navy	28
2011	10/01	Navy	34	Air Force	35
2010	10/02	Air Force	14	Navy	6
2009	10/03	Navy	16	Air Force	13
2008	10/04	Air Force	27	Navy	33
2007	09/29	Navy	31	Air Force	20
2006	10/07	Air Force	17	Navy	24
2005	10/08	Navy	27	Air Force	24
2004	09/30	Air Force	21	Navy	24
2003	10/04	Navy	28	Air Force	25
2002	10/05	Air Force	48	Navy	7
2001	10/06	Navy	18	Air Force	24
2000	10/06	Air Force	27	Navy	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	12	7	5 Overs
Navy	14	5	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	17 - 9	7 - 5	3 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 17	5 - 7	2 - 4	3 - 3

(#) NAVY at (#) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NAVY	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#52	#58
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#117	#181
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Navy Injury Report

Air Force Injury Report

Navy on Offense


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#16	#79
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Navy Run Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Navy Pass Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#45	#96
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Air Force -10.5 (50.5)
Air Force won vs Navy this year (28-14)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Air Force last year (34-31)
Navy beat Air Force in 2024 (34-7)
Air Force beat Navy in 2023 (17-6)

NAVY's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

AFA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD