Navy at Air Force - 2016 Matchup Preview
Navy logo Navy Midshipmen at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, October 1st 2016 (3:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -10.5 (50.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Air Force 28 - Navy: 14

 
Midshipmen (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 38 - 31 (44 - 31 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NAVY coming off BYE
Our Line: -1.5  (SP+ NAVY -2.5)
Projected Score: NAVY: 28 - AFA: 32 (60)
AFA Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
NAVY Travel: 1516 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Falcons (10 - 3) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 35 - 26 (36 - 25 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Navy's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Navy vs Fordham-24.0
Sat 9/10 Navy vs UConn-7.543.5W 28 - 24ON
Sat 9/17 Navy at Tulane-10.542.0W 21 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1 Navy at Air Force+10.550.5L 14 - 28UN
Sat 10/8 Navy vs Houston+17.052.0W 46 - 40OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22 Navy vs Memphis+2.057.0W 42 - 28OY
Fri 10/28 Navy at South Florida+9.066.0L 45 - 52OY
Sat 11/5 Navy vs Notre Dame-4.563.0W 28 - 27UN
Sat 11/12 Navy vs Tulsa-1.071.5W 42 - 40OY
Sat 11/19 Navy at East Carolina-8.064.0W 66 - 31OY
Sat 11/26 Navy at SMU-8.065.5W 75 - 31OY
Sat 12/3 Navy vs Temple-1.559.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 12/10 Navy vs Army-11.546.5L 17 - 21UN
Fri 12/23 Navy vs Louisiana Tech-1.067.0L 45 - 48ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Air Force's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Air Force vs Abilene Christian-44.0
Sat 9/10 Air Force vs Georgia State-22.552.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24 Air Force at Utah State-3.053.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 10/1 Air Force vs Navy-10.550.5W 28 - 14UY
Sat 10/8 Air Force at Wyoming-13.550.0L 26 - 35ON
Sat 10/15 Air Force vs New Mexico-15.053.5L 40 - 45ON
Sat 10/22 Air Force vs Hawai'i-17.558.0L 27 - 34ON
Fri 10/28 Air Force at Fresno State-13.551.0W 31 - 21ON
Sat 11/5 Air Force at Army-3.046.5W 31 - 12UY
Sat 11/12 Air Force vs Colorado State-6.054.0W 49 - 46ON
Sat 11/19 Air Force at San José State-11.054.5W 41 - 38ON
Fri 11/25 Air Force vs Boise State+9.063.5W 27 - 20UY
Fri 12/30 Air Force vs South Alabama-14.054.0W 45 - 21OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2016)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY.3352%37.954%3.4631044%1284.57.2848%3145%49%4.0924.41.11.3
AFA.2148%35.249%3.2331740%1353.8.1637%26.235%38%3.2752.41.31.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1437.944.252.1%4.571.1214383101285.978%21%54%44%11%.33
AFA Defense1326.224.837%3.271.8 - - - - - 49%50%35%38%19%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense143131.247.8%4.091.3 - - - - - 54%44%45%49%14%.28
AFA Offense1335.23648.5%3.81.323452317135580%18%49%40%11%.21

Additional Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1431:1121.154%61%2.824.41.11.34.11.4231.8
Air Force1334:0323.251%53%5.252.41.31.85.52.3330.9
Run Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1478%54%53310.15.961.323.4682%9%1.06
AFA Defense1349%35% - - - - .022.3466%11%1.06
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1454%45% - - - - .163.1879%8%0.99
AFA Offense1380%49%63.6317.4539.183.2374%9%0.85

Pass Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1421%44%6.611.3128.111.419.397.41.924%38%.512%1.9
AFA Defense1350%38% - - - - - - 15.3238%33%.388%2.3
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1444%49% - - - - - - 7.461.730%41%.516%1.8
AFA Offense1318%40%5.211.5134.811.725.8148.472.425%35%.282%1.6

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: NR
Navy's Offense Rating: NR
Navy's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Navy's 2016 Expected Record: -
Navy's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.8  #52
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.8  #16
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #96

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy:    Air Force: 4.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 6.8   Air Force: 4.4




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 4.7 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #181
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2016 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4  #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #45
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #79

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Navy Scoring
Offense: 37.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 44.2
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Navy's 2016 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 32
Navy 28

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 30
Navy 24

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Navy 33
Air Force 33

Total Points: 66
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 35.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 26.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.8

Air Force's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Navy34Air Force31Navy -13.5Air Force50.5Over
202410/05Air Force7Navy34Navy -10Navy37.0Over
202310/21Navy6Air Force17Air Force -11NA34.0Under
202210/01Air Force13Navy10Air Force -14Navy38.0Under
202109/11Navy3Air Force23Air Force -6Air Force40.0Under
202010/03Air Force40Navy7Navy -6.5Air Force46.5Over
201910/05Navy34Air Force25Air Force -3Navy46.5Over
201810/06Air Force35Navy7Navy -2.5Air Force47.0Under
201710/07Navy48Air Force45Navy -8.5Air Force53.5Over
201610/01Air Force28Navy14Air Force -10.5Air Force50.5Under
201510/03Navy33Air Force11Navy -6Navy49.5Under
201410/04Air Force30Navy21Navy -4Air Force0
201310/05Navy28Air Force10Navy -11Navy0
201210/06Air Force21Navy28
201110/01Navy34Air Force35
201010/02Air Force14Navy6
200910/03Navy16Air Force13
200810/04Air Force27Navy33
200709/29Navy31Air Force20
200610/07Air Force17Navy24
200510/08Navy27Air Force24
200409/30Air Force21Navy24
200310/04Navy28Air Force25
200210/05Air Force48Navy7
200110/06Navy18Air Force24
200010/06Air Force27Navy13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force1275 Overs
Navy1456 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams17 - 97 - 53 - 34 - 2
Road Teams9 - 175 - 72 - 43 - 3

(#) NAVY at (#) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYAFA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #52 #58
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #117 #181
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Navy on Offense
CategoryCat
NAVY OffAFA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #16 #79
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Navy Run Game
CategoryCat
NAVY OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Navy Pass Game
CategoryCat
NAVY OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Air Force on Offense
CategoryCatAFA OffNAVY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #45 #96
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Air Force Run Game
CategoryCat
AFA OffNAVY Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
CategoryCatAFA OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 71°
Rematch from Week 5
Air Force -10.5 (50.5)
Air Force won vs Navy this year (28-14)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Air Force last year (34-7)
Air Force beat Navy in 2023 (17-6)
Air Force beat Navy in 2022 (13-10)

  
NAVY's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

AFA's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD