Fresno State at Nevada - 2016 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Nevada Wolf Pack

Saturday, October 8th 2016 (7:00 PM EDT)
Nevada -11.5 (54.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Nevada 27 - Fresno State: 22 (Mountain West)

Bulldogs (1 - 11) (6 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES 2nd straight Road Game
NEV is playing their 6th straight game
FRES is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -4.5 (SP+ NEV -4)
Projected Score: FRES: 26 - NEV: 20 (46)
NEV Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
FRES Travel: 189 miles

Wolf Pack (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Fresno State at Nebraska	+29.5	62.5	L 10 - 43	U	N
Sat 9/10	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-15
Sat 9/17	Fresno State at Toledo	+20.0	57.5	L 17 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/24	Fresno State vs Tulsa	+11.5	66.5	L 41 - 48	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Fresno State at UNLV	+11.5	56.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/8	Fresno State at Nevada	+11.5	54.0	L 22 - 27	U	Y
Fri 10/14	Fresno State vs San Diego State	+17.5	51.0	L 3 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Fresno State at Utah State	+14.0	51.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Fri 10/28	Fresno State vs Air Force	+13.5	51.0	L 21 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Fresno State at Colorado State	+13.0	58.5	L 0 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/19	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	+2.5	54.5	L 13 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Fresno State vs San José State	+4.0	51.5	L 14 - 16	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Nevada's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Nevada vs Cal Poly	-19.0
Sat 9/10	Nevada at Notre Dame	+26.0	62.0	L 10 - 39	U	N
Sat 9/17	Nevada vs Buffalo	-9.0	49.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Nevada at Purdue	+5.0	59.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/1	Nevada at Hawai'i	-3.5	55.5	L 17 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/8	Nevada vs Fresno State	-11.5	54.0	W 27 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/15	Nevada at San José State	+5.0	56.0	L 10 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Nevada vs Wyoming	+3.0	53.0	L 34 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Nevada at New Mexico	+11.0	58.5	L 26 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Nevada vs San Diego State	+20.5	50.5	L 16 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/19	Nevada vs Utah State	+5.0	56.5	W 38 - 37	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Nevada at UNLV	+7.0	59.0	W 45 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	.01	36%	25.8	40%	2.4	137	31%	178	3.21	.26	47%	18.8	48%	43%	3.75	39.3	1.9	1.7
NEV	.16	43%	17.6	42%	2.96	211	42%	165	3.18	.18	46%	27.5	44%	45%	3.13	46.8	0.9	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	12	25.8	26.3	35.8%	3.21	1.9	17	315	137	178	3.9	46%	52%	40%	31%	4%	.01
NEV Defense	13	27.5	25.2	45.5%	3.13	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	44%	45%	3%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	12	18.8	24.8	46.6%	3.75	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	59%	40%	48%	43%	2%	.26
NEV Offense	13	17.6	19.7	43%	3.18	0.9	20	375	211	165	4.9	59%	39%	42%	42%	1%	.16

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	12	27:19	17.3	37%	31%	4.9	39.3	1.9	1.7	0	0	1	31.1
Nevada	13	30:00	19.7	39%	45%	5.2	46.8	0.9	1.6	0	0	2	26.3

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	12	46%	40%	35.3	136.8	3.9	14	.07	2.4	63%	0%	1.13
NEV Defense	13	52%	44%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.09	73%	0%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	12	59%	48%	-	-	-	-	.27	3.3	77%	0%	1.01
NEV Offense	13	59%	42%	42.8	210.6	4.9	24	.12	2.96	66%	0%	1

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	12	52%	31%	16.8	33.6	178.3	5.3	10.6	20	16	-.04	1.5	38%	30%	.14	4%	1.8
NEV Defense	13	46%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.23	1.3	31%	35%	.4	3%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	12	40%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.26	1.6	29%	40%	.55	2%	2
NEV Offense	13	39%	42%	14.3	25.5	164.5	6.5	11.5	15	7	.24	1.5	32%	37%	.37	1%	1.7

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Fresno State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.9 #121
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.4 #126
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #96

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: Nevada: -4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -16.9 Nevada: -13.0

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -4 NR
Nevada's Offense Rating: NR
Nevada's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Nevada's 2016 Expected Record: -
Nevada's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #110
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #85
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.9 #117

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2016 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 26
Nevada 20

Projected Total Points: 46

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2016 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Fresno State	20	Nevada	17	Fresno State -12.5	Nevada	45.5	Under
2024	10/18	Nevada	21	Fresno State	24	Fresno State -3	NA	50.0	Under
2023	09/30	Fresno State	27	Nevada	9	Fresno State -25.5	Nevada	50.5	Under
2022	11/19	Nevada	14	Fresno State	41	Fresno State -22.5	Fresno State	54.0	Over
2021	10/23	Fresno State	34	Nevada	32	Fresno State -3.5	Nevada	64.5	Over
2020	12/05	Nevada	37	Fresno State	26	Nevada -6.5	Nevada	59.0	Over
2019	11/23	Fresno State	28	Nevada	35	Fresno State -13.5	Nevada	51.5	Over
2018	10/06	Nevada	3	Fresno State	21	Fresno State -15	Fresno State	59.0	Under
2017	09/30	Fresno State	41	Nevada	21	Fresno State -7.5	Fresno State	59.5	Over
2016	10/08	Nevada	27	Fresno State	22	Nevada -11.5	Fresno State	54.0	Under
2015	11/05	Fresno State	16	Nevada	30	Nevada -3.5	Nevada	54.0	Under
2014	11/22	Nevada	20	Fresno State	40	Nevada -6.5	Fresno State	0
2013	11/02	Fresno State	41	Nevada	23	Fresno State -23	Nevada	0
2012	11/10	Nevada	36	Fresno State	52
2011	10/22	Nevada	45	Fresno State	38
2010	11/13	Fresno State	34	Nevada	35
2009	11/14	Nevada	52	Fresno State	14
2008	11/07	Fresno State	28	Nevada	41
2007	10/06	Nevada	41	Fresno State	49
2006	09/01	Fresno State	28	Nevada	19
2005	11/26	Nevada	38	Fresno State	35
2004	11/20	Fresno State	54	Nevada	17
2003	11/08	Nevada	10	Fresno State	27
2001	11/17	Nevada	14	Fresno State	61
2000	10/13	Fresno State	58	Nevada	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	9	7	5 Overs
Fresno State	16	5	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	2 - 10	2 - 7	0 - 3
Road Teams	12 - 13	10 - 2	3 - 0	7 - 2

(#) FRES at (#) NEV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	NEV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#121	#110
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#93	#101
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Fresno State Injury Report

Nevada Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	NEV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#126	#117
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#85	#96
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Nevada -11.5 (54.0)
Nevada won vs Fresno State this year (27-22)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Nevada last year (20-17)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2024 (24-21)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2023 (27-9)

FRES's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NEV's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD