Air Force at San José State - 2016 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons at San José State Spartans

Saturday, November 19th 2016 (10:30 PM EST)
Air Force -11 (54.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 41 - San José State: 38 (Mountain West)

Falcons (10 - 3) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 35 - 26 (31 - 25 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Light Rain Predicted
SJSU coming off BYE
AFA is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ AFA -18)
Projected Score: AFA: 31 - SJSU: 24 (55)
AFA Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 931 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Spartans (4 - 8) (3 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 35 (30 - 30 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
SJSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Air Force vs Abilene Christian	-44.0
Sat 9/10	Air Force vs Georgia State	-22.5	52.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24	Air Force at Utah State	-3.0	53.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Air Force vs Navy	-10.5	50.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Air Force at Wyoming	-13.5	50.0	L 26 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/15	Air Force vs New Mexico	-15.0	53.5	L 40 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/22	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-17.5	58.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Fri 10/28	Air Force at Fresno State	-13.5	51.0	W 31 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/5	Air Force at Army	-3.0	46.5	W 31 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Air Force vs Colorado State	-6.0	54.0	W 49 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/19	Air Force at San José State	-11.0	54.5	W 41 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/25	Air Force vs Boise State	+9.0	63.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Fri 12/30	Air Force vs South Alabama	-14.0	54.0	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

San José State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	San José State at Tulsa	+6.0	65.0	L 10 - 45	U	N
Sat 9/10	San José State vs Portland State	-16.5
Sat 9/17	San José State vs Utah	+13.0	46.0	L 17 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/24	San José State at Iowa State	+6.0	52.0	L 10 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/1	San José State at New Mexico	+4.5	51.5	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/8	San José State vs Hawai'i	-3.5	62.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/15	San José State vs Nevada	-5.0	56.0	W 14 - 10	U	N
Fri 10/21	San José State at San Diego State	+22.5	48.0	L 3 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/29	San José State vs UNLV	+3.0	55.0	W 30 - 24	U	Y
Fri 11/4	San José State at Boise State	+26.5	58.5	L 31 - 45	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/19	San José State vs Air Force	+11.0	54.5	L 38 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/26	San José State at Fresno State	-4.0	51.5	W 16 - 14	U	N

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.21	48%	35.2	49%	3.23	317	40%	135	3.8	.16	37%	26.2	35%	38%	3.27	52.4	1.3	1.8
SJSU	.1	42%	24.4	44%	2.85	156	37%	222	3.19	.27	47%	34.7	48%	43%	4.48	36.6	1.7	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
SJSU	#71 (.18)	44% (56)		41% (98)	2.27 (133)	88	46% (28)	322	3.6 (96)	#27 (.1)	41% (57)		42% (66)	39% (47)	3.58 (44)	61.5	2.2	2.2

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	35.2	31.2	48.5%	3.8	1.3	23	452	317	135	5	80%	18%	49%	40%	11%	.21
SJSU Defense	12	34.7	29.7	47%	4.48	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	62%	36%	48%	43%	15%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	26.2	25.2	37%	3.27	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	35%	38%	19%	.16
SJSU Offense	12	24.4	30.3	41.9%	3.19	1.7	21	378	156	222	3.9	51%	48%	44%	37%	21%	.1

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	34:03	23.2	51%	53%	5.2	52.4	1.3	1.8	5.5	2.3	3	30.9
San José State	12	30:47	21.1	40%	43%	4.3	36.6	1.7	1.7	5.8	1.9	0	33.8

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	80%	49%	63.6	317.4	5	39	.18	3.23	74%	9%	0.85
SJSU Defense	12	62%	48%	-	-	-	-	.23	3.19	73%	10%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	49%	35%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.34	66%	11%	1.06
SJSU Offense	12	51%	44%	40	155.8	3.9	16	.09	2.85	75%	13%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	18%	40%	5.2	11.5	134.8	11.7	25.8	14	8	.47	2.4	25%	35%	.28	2%	1.6
SJSU Defense	12	36%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.36	1.7	29%	34%	.4	5%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	50%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.3	2	38%	33%	.38	8%	2.3
SJSU Offense	12	48%	37%	17.8	30.9	222.1	7.2	12.5	18	15	.15	1.8	32%	33%	.16	8%	1.9

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #181
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2016 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4 #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #45
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #79

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: San José State: -4.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 4.4 San José State: -13.6

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -4.3 NR
San José State's Offense Rating: NR
San José State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
San José State's 2016 Expected Record: -
San José State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.6 #111
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #107
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #108

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 35.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 26.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Air Force's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 31
San José State 24

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 28
San José State 22

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 33
San José State 26

Total Points: 59

San José State Scoring
Offense: 24.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.3
Defense: 34.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.7

San José State's 2016 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	San José State	16	Air Force	26	San José State -6	Air Force	67.5	Under
2024	09/07	Air Force	7	San José State	17	Air Force -1.5	San José State	43.5	Under
2023	09/22	San José State	20	Air Force	45	Air Force -6	Air Force	45.5	Over
2020	10/24	San José State	17	Air Force	6	Air Force -7.5	San José State	63.5	Under
2019	09/27	Air Force	41	San José State	24	Air Force -19.5	San José State	58.5	Over
2016	11/19	San José State	38	Air Force	41	Air Force -11	San José State	54.5	Over
2015	09/12	Air Force	37	San José State	16	Air Force -7	Air Force	58.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San José State	2	4	3 Overs
Air Force	5	3	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 4	3 - 4	1 - 3	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 3	4 - 3	1 - 2	3 - 1

(#) AFA at (#) SJSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	SJSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#58	#111
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#181	#84
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Air Force Injury Report

San José State Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SJSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#45	#108
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SJSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SJSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

San José State on Offense


CategoryCat	SJSU Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#79
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

San José State Run Game


CategoryCat	SJSU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

San José State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SJSU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SJSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 58° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Air Force 11.0 (54.5)
Air Force won at San José State this year (41-38)

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Air Force last year (17-7)
Air Force beat San José State in 2023 (45-20)

AFA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

SJSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD