Sat, Aug 23 2025
·
Week 1
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Aviva Stadium
Dublin, Ireland
·
Turf
·
51,700 cap
Iowa State✈ 3,880 mi+5 hr TZ
Kansas State✈ 4,127 mi+5 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -2.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Iowa State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa State 2025 Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Iowa State vs Kansas State | +2.5W24–21 | 51.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/30 | Iowa State vs South Dakota | -16.5W55–7 | 47.5 | W55–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Iowa State vs Iowa | -3.0W16–13 | 43.0 | W16–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Iowa State at Arkansas State | -21.0W24–16 | 55.5 | W24–16 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Iowa State vs Arizona | -4.0W39–14 | 48.5 | W39–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Iowa State at Cincinnati | +1.5L30–38 | 55.5 | L30–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Iowa State at Colorado | -3.0L17–24 | 52.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Iowa State vs BYU | -2.5L27–41 | 48.5 | L27–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Iowa State vs Arizona State | -7.5L19–24 | 48.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Iowa State at TCU | +7.5W20–17 | 58.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Iowa State vs Kansas | -3.0W38–14 | 55.5 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Iowa State at Oklahoma State | -13.5W20–13 | 47.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Kansas State vs Iowa State | -2.5L21–24 | 51.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 8/30 | Kansas State vs North Dakota | -27.5W38–35 | 55.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Kansas State vs Army | -17.0L21–24 | 48.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Fri 9/12 | Kansas State at Arizona | -1.5L17–23 | 55.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Kansas State vs UCF | -5.5W34–20 | 48.5 | W34–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Kansas State at Baylor | +4.5L34–35 | 59.5 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Kansas State vs TCU | +3.0W41–28 | 54.5 | W41–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Kansas State at Kansas | +3.5W42–17 | 55.5 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Kansas State vs Texas Tech | +7.5L20–43 | 51.5 | L20–43 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Kansas State at Oklahoma State | -19.5W14–6 | 50.5 | W14–6 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Kansas State at Utah | +18.5L47–51 | 52.5 | L47–51 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Kansas State vs Colorado | -16.5W24–14 | 50.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Kansas State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
63–51 (55%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Taylor Mouser
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jon Heacock
Yr 3
#1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
47–28 (63%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Matt Wells
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Klanderman
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

