Arizona State at Iowa State Week 10 College Football Matchup Arizona State at Iowa State Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 1 2025 · Week 10 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Arizona State✈ 1,159 mi+2 hr TZ
24 19
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arizona State
23
Iowa State
27
P&R Line Iowa State -4
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Iowa State -7.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arizona State, while Game Control favors Iowa State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -7.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Iowa State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Iowa State 2nd straight Home Game
Arizona State 2025 Schedule
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.5W38–1952.5W38–19ON
Sat 9/6Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.0L20–2458.5L20–24UN
Sat 9/13Arizona State vs Texas State-18.5W34–1561.5W34–15UY
Sat 9/20Arizona State at Baylor+3.0W27–2460.5W27–24UY
Fri 9/26Arizona State vs TCU-2.5W27–2454.5W27–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Arizona State at Utah+9.5L10–4244.5L10–42ON
Sat 10/18Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.5W26–2252.5W26–22UY
Sat 10/25Arizona State vs Houston-7.0L16–2446.5L16–24UN
Sat 11/1Arizona State at Iowa State+7.5W24–1948.5W24–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.0W25–2346.5W25–23ON
Sat 11/22Arizona State at Colorado-7.0W42–1747.5W42–17OY
Fri 11/28Arizona State vs Arizona+2.0L7–2348.5L7–23UN
Wed 12/31Arizona State vs Duke+4.0L39–4249.5L39–42OY
Iowa State 2025 Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.5W24–2151.5W24–21UY
Sat 8/30Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.5W55–747.5W55–7OY
Sat 9/6Iowa State vs Iowa-3.0W16–1343.0W16–13UN
Sat 9/13Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.0W24–1655.5W24–16UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Iowa State vs Arizona-4.0W39–1448.5W39–14OY
Sat 10/4Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.5L30–3855.5L30–38ON
Sat 10/11Iowa State at Colorado-3.0L17–2452.5L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Iowa State vs BYU-2.5L27–4148.5L27–41ON
Sat 11/1Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.5L19–2448.5L19–24UN
Sat 11/8Iowa State at TCU+7.5W20–1758.5W20–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Iowa State vs Kansas-3.0W38–1455.5W38–14UY
Sat 11/29Iowa State at Oklahoma State-13.5W20–1347.5W20–13UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Iowa State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arizona State #91
+0.228
Iowa State #60
+0.286
Iowa State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #68
+0.492
Iowa State #52
+0.452
Arizona State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arizona State #15
0.188
Iowa State #46
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #103
+6.431
Iowa State #85
+7.000
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arizona State #99
+0.796
Iowa State #43
+0.855
Iowa State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arizona State #106
72.3
Iowa State #49
70.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arizona State
7.3
Iowa State
4.1
Offense Rating
Arizona State
21.3
Iowa State
16.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arizona State
13.9
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arizona State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arizona State #32
1.29
Iowa State #79
0.71
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #58
1.14
Iowa State #47
0.86
Arizona State +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arizona State #1
41.1
Iowa State #1
51.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #71
43.7
Iowa State #30
30.7
Iowa State +9.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
14–11 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 2 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
63–51 (55%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 2 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself