Sat, Aug 30 2025
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Week 1
·
🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Manhattan, KS
·
Turf
·
50,000 cap
North Dakota✈ 602 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Kansas State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -27.5
O/U 55.5
Bovada
North Dakota 2025 Schedule
North Dakota's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | North Dakota at Kansas State | +27.5L35–38 | 55.5 | L35–38 | O | Y |
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Kansas State vs Iowa State | -2.5L21–24 | 51.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 8/30 | Kansas State vs North Dakota | -27.5W38–35 | 55.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Kansas State vs Army | -17.0L21–24 | 48.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Fri 9/12 | Kansas State at Arizona | -1.5L17–23 | 55.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Kansas State vs UCF | -5.5W34–20 | 48.5 | W34–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Kansas State at Baylor | +4.5L34–35 | 59.5 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Kansas State vs TCU | +3.0W41–28 | 54.5 | W41–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Kansas State at Kansas | +3.5W42–17 | 55.5 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Kansas State vs Texas Tech | +7.5L20–43 | 51.5 | L20–43 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Kansas State at Oklahoma State | -19.5W14–6 | 50.5 | W14–6 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Kansas State at Utah | +18.5L47–51 | 52.5 | L47–51 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Kansas State vs Colorado | -16.5W24–14 | 50.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Dakota Edge
North Dakota +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kansas State Edge
Kansas State +37.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓