Kansas State at Kansas Week 9 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Kansas Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 25 2025 · Week 9 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Lawrence, KS · Turf · 50,071 cap
42 17
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
27
Kansas
28
P&R Line Kansas State -0.5
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Kansas -3.5 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kansas wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Kansas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas -3.5
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Kansas Coming off BYE 🛋 Kansas State Coming off BYE
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.5L21–2451.5L21–24UN
Sat 8/30Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.5W38–3555.5W38–35ON
Sat 9/6Kansas State vs Army-17.0L21–2448.5L21–24UN
Fri 9/12Kansas State at Arizona-1.5L17–2355.5L17–23UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Kansas State vs UCF-5.5W34–2048.5W34–20OY
Sat 10/4Kansas State at Baylor+4.5L34–3559.5L34–35OY
Sat 10/11Kansas State vs TCU+3.0W41–2854.5W41–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas State at Kansas+3.5W42–1755.5W42–17OY
Sat 11/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.5L20–4351.5L20–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.5W14–650.5W14–6UN
Sat 11/22Kansas State at Utah+18.5L47–5152.5L47–51OY
Sat 11/29Kansas State vs Colorado-16.5W24–1450.5W24–14UN
Kansas 2025 Schedule
Kansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas vs Fresno State-14.0W31–751.5W31–7UY
Fri 8/29Kansas vs Wagner-45.5W46–757.5W46–7UN
Sat 9/6Kansas at Missouri+5.5L31–4251.0L31–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Kansas vs West Virginia-12.5W41–1054.5W41–10UY
Sat 9/27Kansas vs Cincinnati-5.5L34–3755.5L34–37ON
Sat 10/4Kansas at UCF-4.0W27–2053.5W27–20UY
Sat 10/11Kansas at Texas Tech+13.5L17–4258.5L17–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas vs Kansas State-3.5L17–4255.5L17–42ON
Sat 11/1Kansas vs Oklahoma State-24.5W38–2154.5W38–21ON
Sat 11/8Kansas at Arizona+5.5L20–2456.5L20–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Kansas at Iowa State+3.0L14–3855.5L14–38UN
Fri 11/28Kansas vs Utah+10.5L21–3159.5L21–31UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #45
+0.457
Kansas #26
+0.374
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #65
+0.643
Kansas #45
+0.469
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #46
0.167
Kansas #26
0.177
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #32
+8.396
Kansas #47
+7.391
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #92
+0.825
Kansas #13
+0.878
Kansas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #44
69.8
Kansas #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Kansas
-0.3
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Kansas
15.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Kansas
15.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #53
0.67
Kansas #73
0.83
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #64
0.50
Kansas #45
1.00
Kansas +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
47.4
Kansas #1
54.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #23
27.6
Kansas #79
32.8
Kansas +6.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
47–28 (63%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Matt Wells Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
22–28 (44%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Matt Lubick Yr 1 #1
DC D.K. McDonald Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself