Kansas State at Arizona Week 3 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Arizona Matchup - Week 3
Fri, Sep 12 2025 · Week 3 · 🏟 Arizona Stadium Tucson, AZ · Turf · 56,029 cap
Kansas State✈ 936 mi-2 hr TZ
17 23
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
26
Arizona
29
P&R Line Arizona -3.5
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kansas State -1.5 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Arizona has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Arizona entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Arizona wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Arizona wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -1.5
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arizona · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Arizona 3rd straight Home Game
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.5L21–2451.5L21–24UN
Sat 8/30Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.5W38–3555.5W38–35ON
Sat 9/6Kansas State vs Army-17.0L21–2448.5L21–24UN
Fri 9/12Kansas State at Arizona-1.5L17–2355.5L17–23UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Kansas State vs UCF-5.5W34–2048.5W34–20OY
Sat 10/4Kansas State at Baylor+4.5L34–3559.5L34–35OY
Sat 10/11Kansas State vs TCU+3.0W41–2854.5W41–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas State at Kansas+3.5W42–1755.5W42–17OY
Sat 11/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.5L20–4351.5L20–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.5W14–650.5W14–6UN
Sat 11/22Kansas State at Utah+18.5L47–5152.5L47–51OY
Sat 11/29Kansas State vs Colorado-16.5W24–1450.5W24–14UN
Arizona 2025 Schedule
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.5W40–655.5W40–6UY
Sat 9/6Arizona vs Weber State-31.5W48–356.5W48–3UY
Fri 9/12Arizona vs Kansas State+1.5W23–1755.5W23–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Arizona at Iowa State+4.0L14–3948.5L14–39ON
Sat 10/4Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.5W41–1356.5W41–13UY
Sat 10/11Arizona vs BYU+2.5L27–3346.5L27–33ON
Sat 10/18Arizona at Houston-1.5L28–3147.5L28–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Arizona at Colorado-4.0W52–1752.5W52–17OY
Sat 11/8Arizona vs Kansas-5.5W24–2056.5W24–20UN
Sat 11/15Arizona at Cincinnati+6.5W30–2456.5W30–24UY
Sat 11/22Arizona vs Baylor-6.5W41–1761.5W41–17UY
Fri 11/28Arizona at Arizona State-2.0W23–748.5W23–7UY
Fri 1/2Arizona vs SMU+2.5L19–2455.5L19–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Arizona PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #45
+0.305
Arizona #58
+0.314
Arizona Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #65
+0.427
Arizona #73
+0.389
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #46
0.167
Arizona #5
0.202
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #32
+7.537
Arizona #79
+7.057
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #92
+0.799
Arizona #63
+0.821
Arizona Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #44
69.8
Arizona #4
66.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Arizona Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Arizona
9.6
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Arizona
21.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Arizona
11.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arizona Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #53
0.50
Arizona #28
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #64
0.50
Arizona #55
0.00
Arizona +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arizona Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
46.6
Arizona #1
93.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #23
26.5
Arizona #49
3.8
Arizona +46.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arizona
66.6 — 11.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arizona won by 6
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Arizona with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
47–28 (63%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Matt Wells Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona
Brent Brennan #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Seth Doege Yr 1 #1
DC Danny Gonzales Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself