Army at Kansas State Week 2 College Football Matchup Army at Kansas State Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 6 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Army✈ 1,198 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
24 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Army
18
Kansas State
31
P&R Line Kansas State -13
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -17.0 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -17.0
O/U 48.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Kansas State 3rd straight Home Game
Army 2025 Schedule
Army's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Army vs Tarleton State-14.5L27–3047.5L27–30ON
Sat 9/6Army at Kansas State+17.0W24–2148.5W24–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Army vs North Texas+2.5L38–4550.5L38–45ON
Thu 9/25Army at East Carolina+3.5L6–2852.5L6–28UN
Sat 10/4Army at UAB-6.5W31–1355.5W31–13UY
Sat 10/11Army vs Charlotte-17.5W24–745.5W24–7UN
Sat 10/18Army at Tulane+10.0L17–2444.5L17–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Army at Air Force-1.5W20–1748.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/8Army vs Temple-7.5W14–1345.5W14–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Army vs Tulsa-10.0L25–2643.5L25–26ON
Sat 11/29Army at UTSA+8.5W27–2450.5W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 12/13Army vs Navy+6.0L16–1738.0L16–17UY
Sat 12/27Army vs UConn-5.5W41–1641.5W41–16OY
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.5L21–2451.5L21–24UN
Sat 8/30Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.5W38–3555.5W38–35ON
Sat 9/6Kansas State vs Army-17.0L21–2448.5L21–24UN
Fri 9/12Kansas State at Arizona-1.5L17–2355.5L17–23UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Kansas State vs UCF-5.5W34–2048.5W34–20OY
Sat 10/4Kansas State at Baylor+4.5L34–3559.5L34–35OY
Sat 10/11Kansas State vs TCU+3.0W41–2854.5W41–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas State at Kansas+3.5W42–1755.5W42–17OY
Sat 11/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.5L20–4351.5L20–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.5W14–650.5W14–6UN
Sat 11/22Kansas State at Utah+18.5L47–5152.5L47–51OY
Sat 11/29Kansas State vs Colorado-16.5W24–1450.5W24–14UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Army #53
+0.318
Kansas State #45
+0.380
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Army #7
+0.621
Kansas State #65
+0.547
Army Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Army #121
0.127
Kansas State #46
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Army #67
+7.147
Kansas State #32
+7.919
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Army #70
+0.816
Kansas State #92
+0.852
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Army #39
69.7
Kansas State #44
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Army Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Army
-1.1
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Army
14.9
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Army
16.0
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Army Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Army #66
0.00
Kansas State #53
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Army #48
0.00
Kansas State #64
1.00
Army +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Army Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Army #1
0.0
Kansas State #1
36.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Army #63
0.0
Kansas State #23
31.4
Army +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
67.9 — 16.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Army won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Army
Jeff Monken #1
81–57 (59%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Cody Worley Yr 2 #1
DC Nate Woody Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
47–28 (63%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Matt Wells Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself