Iowa at Iowa State Week 2 College Football Matchup Iowa at Iowa State Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 6 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Iowa✈ 110 miSame TZ
Away
13 16
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa
25
IOWA +3
Iowa State
20
P&R Line Iowa -5.5
P&R Total O/U 45
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Iowa State -3.0 · O/U 43.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Iowa wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -3.0
O/U 43.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Iowa State 2nd straight Home Game
Iowa 2025 Schedule
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Iowa vs UAlbany-39.5W34–748.5W34–7UN
Sat 9/6Iowa at Iowa State+3.0L13–1643.0L13–16UY
Sat 9/13Iowa vs Massachusetts-35.5W47–744.5W47–7OY
Fri 9/19Iowa at Rutgers-2.5W38–2846.5W38–28OY
Sat 9/27Iowa vs Indiana+9.5L15–2047.5L15–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Iowa at Wisconsin-5.5W37–037.5W37–0UY
Sat 10/18Iowa vs Penn State-3.5W25–2441.5W25–24ON
Sat 10/25Iowa vs Minnesota-7.5W41–339.5W41–3OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Iowa vs Oregon+4.5L16–1841.5L16–18UY
Sat 11/15Iowa at USC+6.5L21–2648.5L21–26UY
Sat 11/22Iowa vs Michigan State-17.5W20–1743.0W20–17UN
Fri 11/28Iowa at Nebraska-5.5W40–1638.5W40–16OY
Wed 12/31Iowa vs Vanderbilt+3.0W34–2747.5W34–27OY
Iowa State 2025 Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.5W24–2151.5W24–21UY
Sat 8/30Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.5W55–747.5W55–7OY
Sat 9/6Iowa State vs Iowa-3.0W16–1343.0W16–13UN
Sat 9/13Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.0W24–1655.5W24–16UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Iowa State vs Arizona-4.0W39–1448.5W39–14OY
Sat 10/4Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.5L30–3855.5L30–38ON
Sat 10/11Iowa State at Colorado-3.0L17–2452.5L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Iowa State vs BYU-2.5L27–4148.5L27–41ON
Sat 11/1Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.5L19–2448.5L19–24UN
Sat 11/8Iowa State at TCU+7.5W20–1758.5W20–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Iowa State vs Kansas-3.0W38–1455.5W38–14UY
Sat 11/29Iowa State at Oklahoma State-13.5W20–1347.5W20–13UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Iowa State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa #73
+0.262
Iowa State #60
+0.266
Iowa State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa #71
+0.488
Iowa State #52
+0.446
Iowa Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa #42
0.169
Iowa State #46
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa #20
+7.494
Iowa State #85
+6.880
Iowa Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa #45
+0.838
Iowa State #43
+0.833
Iowa Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa #6
66.7
Iowa State #49
70.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa
11.5
Iowa State
3.1
Offense Rating
Iowa
18.6
Iowa State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa
7.1
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa #50
0.00
Iowa State #79
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa #10
0.00
Iowa State #47
0.00
Iowa +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa #1
72.8
Iowa State #1
64.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa #21
9.6
Iowa State #30
11.9
Iowa +8.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Iowa State
64.1 — 12.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz #1
204–123 (62%) · Yr 27 at school
OC Tim Lester Yr 2 #1
DC Phil Parker Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
63–51 (55%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 2 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself