Kansas at Iowa State Week 13 College Football Matchup Kansas at Iowa State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 22 2025 · Week 13 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Kansas✈ 227 miSame TZ
Away
14 38
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas
23
ISU -3
Iowa State
31
P&R Line Iowa State -7.5
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Iowa State -3 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kansas wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Kansas wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -3
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Iowa State Coming off BYE 🛋 Kansas Coming off BYE
Kansas 2025 Schedule
Kansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas vs Fresno State-14.0W31–751.5W31–7UY
Fri 8/29Kansas vs Wagner-45.5W46–757.5W46–7UN
Sat 9/6Kansas at Missouri+5.5L31–4251.0L31–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Kansas vs West Virginia-12.5W41–1054.5W41–10UY
Sat 9/27Kansas vs Cincinnati-5.5L34–3755.5L34–37ON
Sat 10/4Kansas at UCF-4.0W27–2053.5W27–20UY
Sat 10/11Kansas at Texas Tech+13.5L17–4258.5L17–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas vs Kansas State-3.5L17–4255.5L17–42ON
Sat 11/1Kansas vs Oklahoma State-24.5W38–2154.5W38–21ON
Sat 11/8Kansas at Arizona+5.5L20–2456.5L20–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Kansas at Iowa State+3.0L14–3855.5L14–38UN
Fri 11/28Kansas vs Utah+10.5L21–3159.5L21–31UY
Iowa State 2025 Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.5W24–2151.5W24–21UY
Sat 8/30Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.5W55–747.5W55–7OY
Sat 9/6Iowa State vs Iowa-3.0W16–1343.0W16–13UN
Sat 9/13Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.0W24–1655.5W24–16UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Iowa State vs Arizona-4.0W39–1448.5W39–14OY
Sat 10/4Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.5L30–3855.5L30–38ON
Sat 10/11Iowa State at Colorado-3.0L17–2452.5L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Iowa State vs BYU-2.5L27–4148.5L27–41ON
Sat 11/1Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.5L19–2448.5L19–24UN
Sat 11/8Iowa State at TCU+7.5W20–1758.5W20–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Iowa State vs Kansas-3.0W38–1455.5W38–14UY
Sat 11/29Iowa State at Oklahoma State-13.5W20–1347.5W20–13UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Iowa State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas #26
+0.339
Iowa State #60
+0.438
Iowa State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #45
+0.562
Iowa State #52
+0.677
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas #26
0.177
Iowa State #46
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #47
+7.002
Iowa State #85
+7.783
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas #13
+0.877
Iowa State #43
+0.864
Kansas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas #64
70.9
Iowa State #49
70.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas
-0.3
Iowa State
3.1
Offense Rating
Kansas
15.2
Iowa State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas
15.5
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas #73
1.22
Iowa State #79
0.56
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #45
0.67
Iowa State #47
0.89
Kansas +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas #1
49.5
Iowa State #1
46.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #79
35.9
Iowa State #30
32.9
Kansas +2.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Iowa State
92.9 — 4.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 24
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
22–28 (44%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Matt Lubick Yr 1 #1
DC D.K. McDonald Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
63–51 (55%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 2 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself