Iowa State at Oklahoma State Week 14 College Football Matchup Iowa State at Oklahoma State Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 29 2025 · Week 14 · 🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium Stillwater, OK · Turf · 60,218 cap
Iowa State✈ 446 miSame TZ
20 13
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
33
Oklahoma State
14
P&R Line Iowa State -18.5
P&R Total O/U 46.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Iowa State -13.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -13.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa State 2025 Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.5W24–2151.5W24–21UY
Sat 8/30Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.5W55–747.5W55–7OY
Sat 9/6Iowa State vs Iowa-3.0W16–1343.0W16–13UN
Sat 9/13Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.0W24–1655.5W24–16UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Iowa State vs Arizona-4.0W39–1448.5W39–14OY
Sat 10/4Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.5L30–3855.5L30–38ON
Sat 10/11Iowa State at Colorado-3.0L17–2452.5L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Iowa State vs BYU-2.5L27–4148.5L27–41ON
Sat 11/1Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.5L19–2448.5L19–24UN
Sat 11/8Iowa State at TCU+7.5W20–1758.5W20–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Iowa State vs Kansas-3.0W38–1455.5W38–14UY
Sat 11/29Iowa State at Oklahoma State-13.5W20–1347.5W20–13UN
Oklahoma State 2025 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.0W27–756.5W27–7UN
Sat 9/6Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.5L3–6955.5L3–69ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/19Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-10.5L12–1954.5L12–19UN
Sat 9/27Oklahoma State vs Baylor+21.0L27–4558.5L27–45OY
Sat 10/4Oklahoma State at Arizona+21.5L13–4156.5L13–41UN
Sat 10/11Oklahoma State vs Houston+14.5L17–3947.5L17–39ON
Sat 10/18Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+23.5L17–4957.5L17–49ON
Sat 10/25Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+37.5L0–4256.5L0–42UN
Sat 11/1Oklahoma State at Kansas+24.5L21–3854.5L21–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+19.5L6–1450.5L6–14UY
Sat 11/22Oklahoma State at UCF+13.5L14–1747.5L14–17UY
Sat 11/29Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+13.5L13–2047.5L13–20UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Iowa State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State #60
+0.466
Oklahoma State #133
+0.103
Iowa State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #52
+0.730
Oklahoma State #128
+0.319
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State #46
0.167
Oklahoma State #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #85
+7.541
Oklahoma State #125
+6.020
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State #43
+0.895
Oklahoma State #129
+0.748
Iowa State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State #49
70.1
Oklahoma State #132
74.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Oklahoma State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
4.1
Oklahoma State
4.8
Offense Rating
Iowa State
16.7
Oklahoma State
19.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
Oklahoma State
14.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #79
0.70
Oklahoma State #136
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #47
0.80
Oklahoma State #86
1.80
Iowa State +0.70
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
51.1
Oklahoma State #1
24.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #30
30.3
Oklahoma State #129
63.5
Iowa State +26.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oklahoma State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Iowa State
12.9 — 67.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
63–51 (55%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 2 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
169–88 (66%) · Yr 21 at school
OC Doug Meacham Yr 1 #1
DC Todd Grantham Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself