Texas Tech at Kansas State Week 10 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Kansas State Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 1 2025 · Week 10 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Texas Tech✈ 486 miSame TZ
43 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
33
Kansas State
20
P&R Line Texas Tech -13.5
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas Tech -7.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -7.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Texas Tech 2025 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-54.5W67–763.5W67–7OY
Sat 9/6Texas Tech vs Kent State-48.5W62–1460.0W62–14ON
Sat 9/13Texas Tech vs Oregon State-24.5W45–761.5W45–7UY
Sat 9/20Texas Tech at Utah+3.5W34–1058.5W34–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Texas Tech at Houston-13.5W35–1151.5W35–11UY
Sat 10/11Texas Tech vs Kansas-13.5W42–1758.5W42–17OY
Sat 10/18Texas Tech at Arizona State-7.5L22–2652.5L22–26UN
Sat 10/25Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State-37.5W42–056.5W42–0UY
Sat 11/1Texas Tech at Kansas State-7.5W43–2051.5W43–20OY
Sat 11/8Texas Tech vs BYU-13.5W29–750.5W29–7UY
Sat 11/15Texas Tech vs UCF-24.5W48–948.5W48–9OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29Texas Tech at West Virginia-24.5W49–053.5W49–0UY
Sat 12/6Texas Tech vs BYU-12.5W34–750.5W34–7UY
Thu 1/1Texas Tech vs Oregon-1.5L0–2350.5L0–23UN
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.5L21–2451.5L21–24UN
Sat 8/30Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.5W38–3555.5W38–35ON
Sat 9/6Kansas State vs Army-17.0L21–2448.5L21–24UN
Fri 9/12Kansas State at Arizona-1.5L17–2355.5L17–23UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Kansas State vs UCF-5.5W34–2048.5W34–20OY
Sat 10/4Kansas State at Baylor+4.5L34–3559.5L34–35OY
Sat 10/11Kansas State vs TCU+3.0W41–2854.5W41–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas State at Kansas+3.5W42–1755.5W42–17OY
Sat 11/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.5L20–4351.5L20–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.5W14–650.5W14–6UN
Sat 11/22Kansas State at Utah+18.5L47–5152.5L47–51OY
Sat 11/29Kansas State vs Colorado-16.5W24–1450.5W24–14UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Texas Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #28
+0.370
Kansas State #45
+0.114
Texas Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #38
+0.500
Kansas State #65
+0.252
Texas Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #1
0.233
Kansas State #46
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #41
+7.447
Kansas State #32
+6.561
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #61
+0.823
Kansas State #92
+0.710
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #1
64.0
Kansas State #44
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.3
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #1
2.14
Kansas State #53
0.57
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #4
0.71
Kansas State #64
0.43
Texas Tech +1.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
82.7
Kansas State #1
51.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #5
11.7
Kansas State #23
25.7
Texas Tech +31.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
23–15 (61%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 1 #1
DC Shiel Wood Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
47–28 (63%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Matt Wells Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself