Kansas State at Utah Week 13 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Utah Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 22 2025 · Week 13 · 🏟 Rice-Eccles Stadium Salt Lake City, UT · Turf · 45,807 cap
Kansas State✈ 813 mi-1 hr TZ
47 51
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
21
Utah
35
P&R Line Utah -14
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Utah -18.5 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Utah has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Utah entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Utah wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Utah wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Utah -18.5
O/U 52.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Utah · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Kansas State 2nd straight Road Game
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.5L21–2451.5L21–24UN
Sat 8/30Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.5W38–3555.5W38–35ON
Sat 9/6Kansas State vs Army-17.0L21–2448.5L21–24UN
Fri 9/12Kansas State at Arizona-1.5L17–2355.5L17–23UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Kansas State vs UCF-5.5W34–2048.5W34–20OY
Sat 10/4Kansas State at Baylor+4.5L34–3559.5L34–35OY
Sat 10/11Kansas State vs TCU+3.0W41–2854.5W41–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas State at Kansas+3.5W42–1755.5W42–17OY
Sat 11/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.5L20–4351.5L20–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.5W14–650.5W14–6UN
Sat 11/22Kansas State at Utah+18.5L47–5152.5L47–51OY
Sat 11/29Kansas State vs Colorado-16.5W24–1450.5W24–14UN
Utah 2025 Schedule
Utah's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Utah at UCLA-6.5W43–1050.5W43–10OY
Sat 9/6Utah vs Cal Poly-42.5W63–953.5W63–9OY
Sat 9/13Utah at Wyoming-24.5W31–647.5W31–6UY
Sat 9/20Utah vs Texas Tech-3.5L10–3458.5L10–34UN
Sat 9/27Utah at West Virginia-13.5W48–1446.5W48–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Utah vs Arizona State-9.5W42–1044.5W42–10OY
Sat 10/18Utah at BYU-4.0L21–2449.5L21–24UN
Sat 10/25Utah vs Colorado-14.5W53–750.5W53–7OY
Sat 11/1Utah vs Cincinnati-11.5W45–1457.5W45–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Utah at Baylor-9.5W55–2860.5W55–28OY
Sat 11/22Utah vs Kansas State-18.5W51–4752.5W51–47ON
Fri 11/28Utah at Kansas-10.5W31–2159.5W31–21UN
Wed 12/31Utah vs Nebraska-13.5W44–2251.5W44–22OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Utah PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Utah
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Utah
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #45
+0.279
Utah #3
+0.483
Utah Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #65
+0.263
Utah #30
+0.527
Utah Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #46
0.167
Utah #42
0.169
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Utah Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #32
+7.084
Utah #2
+8.459
Utah Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #92
+0.793
Utah #8
+0.885
Utah Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #44
69.8
Utah #78
71.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Utah Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Utah
7.3
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Utah
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Utah
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Utah Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #53
0.44
Utah #6
1.89
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #64
0.78
Utah #24
0.33
Utah +1.45
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Utah Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
48.3
Utah #1
71.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #23
29.1
Utah #9
18.8
Utah +22.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
2 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
21.1 — 50.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Utah won by 4
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Utah with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
47–28 (63%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Matt Wells Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
167–86 (66%) · Yr 21 at school
OC Jason Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Morgan Scalley Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself