TCU at Kansas State Week 7 College Football Matchup TCU at Kansas State Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 11 2025 · Week 7 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
TCU✈ 450 miSame TZ
Away
28 41
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
TCU
28
KSU +3
Kansas State
27
P&R Line TCU -1.5
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas TCU -3 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
TCU has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor TCU entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
TCU wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
TCU wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
TCU -3
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Kansas State · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
TCU 2025 Schedule
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1TCU at North Carolina-3.0W48–1459.5W48–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/13TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.5W42–2160.5W42–21ON
Sat 9/20TCU vs SMU-6.5W35–2463.5W35–24UY
Fri 9/26TCU at Arizona State+2.5L24–2754.5L24–27UN
Sat 10/4TCU vs Colorado-13.5W35–2157.5W35–21UY
Sat 10/11TCU at Kansas State-3.0L28–4154.5L28–41ON
Sat 10/18TCU vs Baylor-3.5W42–3666.5W42–36OY
Sat 10/25TCU at West Virginia-16.5W23–1755.5W23–17UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8TCU vs Iowa State-7.5L17–2058.5L17–20UN
Sat 11/15TCU at BYU+3.0L13–4451.5L13–44ON
Sat 11/22TCU at Houston-1.5W17–1455.5W17–14UY
Sat 11/29TCU vs Cincinnati-3.0W45–2358.5W45–23OY
Tue 12/30TCU vs USC+4.5W30–2756.5W30–27OY
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.5L21–2451.5L21–24UN
Sat 8/30Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.5W38–3555.5W38–35ON
Sat 9/6Kansas State vs Army-17.0L21–2448.5L21–24UN
Fri 9/12Kansas State at Arizona-1.5L17–2355.5L17–23UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Kansas State vs UCF-5.5W34–2048.5W34–20OY
Sat 10/4Kansas State at Baylor+4.5L34–3559.5L34–35OY
Sat 10/11Kansas State vs TCU+3.0W41–2854.5W41–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas State at Kansas+3.5W42–1755.5W42–17OY
Sat 11/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.5L20–4351.5L20–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.5W14–650.5W14–6UN
Sat 11/22Kansas State at Utah+18.5L47–5152.5L47–51OY
Sat 11/29Kansas State vs Colorado-16.5W24–1450.5W24–14UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
TCU #36
+0.341
Kansas State #45
+0.351
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
TCU #20
+0.565
Kansas State #65
+0.555
TCU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TCU #86
0.149
Kansas State #46
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
TCU #34
+7.587
Kansas State #32
+7.642
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
TCU #48
+0.838
Kansas State #92
+0.812
TCU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
TCU #48
70.0
Kansas State #44
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
TCU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
TCU
6.5
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
TCU
17.9
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
TCU
11.4
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? TCU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
TCU #36
1.75
Kansas State #53
0.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
TCU #33
0.75
Kansas State #64
0.60
TCU +1.15
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? TCU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
TCU #1
65.5
Kansas State #1
45.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
TCU #27
15.9
Kansas State #23
30.3
TCU +20.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
62.0 — 11.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 13
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on TCU with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
TCU
Sonny Dykes #1
26–13 (67%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kendal Briles Yr 3 #1
DC Andy Avalos Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
47–28 (63%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Matt Wells Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself