Kansas State at Oklahoma State Week 12 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Oklahoma State Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 15 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium Stillwater, OK · Turf · 60,218 cap
Kansas State✈ 214 miSame TZ
14 6
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
34
OKST +19.5
Oklahoma State
18
P&R Line Kansas State -16
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -19.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -19.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Oklahoma State Coming off BYE 🛋 Kansas State Coming off BYE
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.5L21–2451.5L21–24UN
Sat 8/30Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.5W38–3555.5W38–35ON
Sat 9/6Kansas State vs Army-17.0L21–2448.5L21–24UN
Fri 9/12Kansas State at Arizona-1.5L17–2355.5L17–23UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Kansas State vs UCF-5.5W34–2048.5W34–20OY
Sat 10/4Kansas State at Baylor+4.5L34–3559.5L34–35OY
Sat 10/11Kansas State vs TCU+3.0W41–2854.5W41–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas State at Kansas+3.5W42–1755.5W42–17OY
Sat 11/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.5L20–4351.5L20–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.5W14–650.5W14–6UN
Sat 11/22Kansas State at Utah+18.5L47–5152.5L47–51OY
Sat 11/29Kansas State vs Colorado-16.5W24–1450.5W24–14UN
Oklahoma State 2025 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.0W27–756.5W27–7UN
Sat 9/6Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.5L3–6955.5L3–69ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/19Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-10.5L12–1954.5L12–19UN
Sat 9/27Oklahoma State vs Baylor+21.0L27–4558.5L27–45OY
Sat 10/4Oklahoma State at Arizona+21.5L13–4156.5L13–41UN
Sat 10/11Oklahoma State vs Houston+14.5L17–3947.5L17–39ON
Sat 10/18Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+23.5L17–4957.5L17–49ON
Sat 10/25Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+37.5L0–4256.5L0–42UN
Sat 11/1Oklahoma State at Kansas+24.5L21–3854.5L21–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+19.5L6–1450.5L6–14UY
Sat 11/22Oklahoma State at UCF+13.5L14–1747.5L14–17UY
Sat 11/29Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+13.5L13–2047.5L13–20UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #45
+0.484
Oklahoma State #133
+0.138
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #65
+0.696
Oklahoma State #128
+0.226
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #46
0.167
Oklahoma State #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #32
+8.154
Oklahoma State #125
+6.409
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #92
+0.856
Oklahoma State #129
+0.749
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #44
69.8
Oklahoma State #132
74.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Oklahoma State
4.7
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Oklahoma State
19.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Oklahoma State
15.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #53
0.50
Oklahoma State #136
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #64
0.88
Oklahoma State #86
2.13
Kansas State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
49.2
Oklahoma State #1
19.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #23
28.6
Oklahoma State #129
71.2
Kansas State +29.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
47–28 (63%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Matt Wells Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
169–88 (66%) · Yr 21 at school
OC Doug Meacham Yr 1 #1
DC Todd Grantham Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself