Sat, Oct 4 2025
·
Week 6
·
🏟 McLane Stadium
Waco, TX
·
Turf
·
45,140 cap
Kansas State✈ 528 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Kansas State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Baylor -4.5
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Kansas State vs Iowa State | -2.5L21–24 | 51.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 8/30 | Kansas State vs North Dakota | -27.5W38–35 | 55.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Kansas State vs Army | -17.0L21–24 | 48.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Fri 9/12 | Kansas State at Arizona | -1.5L17–23 | 55.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Kansas State vs UCF | -5.5W34–20 | 48.5 | W34–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Kansas State at Baylor | +4.5L34–35 | 59.5 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Kansas State vs TCU | +3.0W41–28 | 54.5 | W41–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Kansas State at Kansas | +3.5W42–17 | 55.5 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Kansas State vs Texas Tech | +7.5L20–43 | 51.5 | L20–43 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Kansas State at Oklahoma State | -19.5W14–6 | 50.5 | W14–6 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Kansas State at Utah | +18.5L47–51 | 52.5 | L47–51 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Kansas State vs Colorado | -16.5W24–14 | 50.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
Baylor 2025 Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Baylor vs Auburn | +1.5L24–38 | 57.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Baylor at SMU | +3.0W48–45 | 65.5 | W48–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Baylor vs Samford | -51.5W42–7 | 65.5 | W42–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Baylor vs Arizona State | -3.0L24–27 | 60.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Baylor at Oklahoma State | -21.0W45–27 | 58.5 | W45–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Baylor vs Kansas State | -4.5W35–34 | 59.5 | W35–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Baylor at TCU | +3.5L36–42 | 66.5 | L36–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Baylor at Cincinnati | +3.5L20–41 | 68.5 | L20–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Baylor vs UCF | -3.0W30–3 | 58.5 | W30–3 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Baylor vs Utah | +9.5L28–55 | 60.5 | L28–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Baylor at Arizona | +6.5L17–41 | 61.5 | L17–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Baylor vs Houston | -2.5L24–31 | 57.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kansas State Edge
Kansas State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kansas State Edge
Kansas State +1.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Kansas State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
47–28 (63%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Matt Wells
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Klanderman
Yr 3
#1
Baylor
Dave Aranda #1
31–29 (52%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Jake Spavital
Yr 2
#1
DC
Matt Powledge
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

