Kansas State at Baylor Week 6 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Baylor Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 4 2025 · Week 6 · 🏟 McLane Stadium Waco, TX · Turf · 45,140 cap
Kansas State✈ 528 miSame TZ
34 35
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
29
Baylor
31
P&R Line Baylor -2
P&R Total O/U 59
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Baylor -4.5 · O/U 59.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Kansas State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Baylor -4.5
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.5L21–2451.5L21–24UN
Sat 8/30Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.5W38–3555.5W38–35ON
Sat 9/6Kansas State vs Army-17.0L21–2448.5L21–24UN
Fri 9/12Kansas State at Arizona-1.5L17–2355.5L17–23UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Kansas State vs UCF-5.5W34–2048.5W34–20OY
Sat 10/4Kansas State at Baylor+4.5L34–3559.5L34–35OY
Sat 10/11Kansas State vs TCU+3.0W41–2854.5W41–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas State at Kansas+3.5W42–1755.5W42–17OY
Sat 11/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.5L20–4351.5L20–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.5W14–650.5W14–6UN
Sat 11/22Kansas State at Utah+18.5L47–5152.5L47–51OY
Sat 11/29Kansas State vs Colorado-16.5W24–1450.5W24–14UN
Baylor 2025 Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Baylor vs Auburn+1.5L24–3857.5L24–38ON
Sat 9/6Baylor at SMU+3.0W48–4565.5W48–45OY
Sat 9/13Baylor vs Samford-51.5W42–765.5W42–7UN
Sat 9/20Baylor vs Arizona State-3.0L24–2760.5L24–27UN
Sat 9/27Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.0W45–2758.5W45–27ON
Sat 10/4Baylor vs Kansas State-4.5W35–3459.5W35–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Baylor at TCU+3.5L36–4266.5L36–42ON
Sat 10/25Baylor at Cincinnati+3.5L20–4168.5L20–41UN
Sat 11/1Baylor vs UCF-3.0W30–358.5W30–3UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Baylor vs Utah+9.5L28–5560.5L28–55ON
Sat 11/22Baylor at Arizona+6.5L17–4161.5L17–41UN
Sat 11/29Baylor vs Houston-2.5L24–3157.5L24–31UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #45
+0.385
Baylor #49
+0.325
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #65
+0.504
Baylor #67
+0.399
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #46
0.167
Baylor #126
0.123
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #32
+8.450
Baylor #69
+7.141
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #92
+0.852
Baylor #39
+0.844
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #44
69.8
Baylor #82
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Baylor
3.6
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Baylor
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Baylor
13.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #53
0.50
Baylor #97
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #64
0.75
Baylor #65
0.75
Kansas State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
45.5
Baylor #1
43.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #23
30.9
Baylor #102
36.8
Kansas State +1.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
47–28 (63%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Matt Wells Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Baylor
Dave Aranda #1
31–29 (52%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Jake Spavital Yr 2 #1
DC Matt Powledge Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself