Iowa State at Cincinnati Week 6 College Football Matchup Iowa State at Cincinnati Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 4 2025 · Week 6 · 🏟 Nippert Stadium Cincinnati, OH · Turf · 40,000 cap
Iowa State✈ 518 mi+1 hr TZ
30 38
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
25
CIN -1.5
Cincinnati
28
P&R Line Cincinnati -3.5
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Cincinnati -1.5 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Cincinnati -1.5
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Iowa State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa State 2025 Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.5W24–2151.5W24–21UY
Sat 8/30Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.5W55–747.5W55–7OY
Sat 9/6Iowa State vs Iowa-3.0W16–1343.0W16–13UN
Sat 9/13Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.0W24–1655.5W24–16UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Iowa State vs Arizona-4.0W39–1448.5W39–14OY
Sat 10/4Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.5L30–3855.5L30–38ON
Sat 10/11Iowa State at Colorado-3.0L17–2452.5L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Iowa State vs BYU-2.5L27–4148.5L27–41ON
Sat 11/1Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.5L19–2448.5L19–24UN
Sat 11/8Iowa State at TCU+7.5W20–1758.5W20–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Iowa State vs Kansas-3.0W38–1455.5W38–14UY
Sat 11/29Iowa State at Oklahoma State-13.5W20–1347.5W20–13UN
Cincinnati 2025 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.5L17–2052.5L17–20UY
Sat 9/6Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.5W34–2046.5W34–20ON
Sat 9/13Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.5W70–055.5W70–0OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Cincinnati at Kansas+5.5W37–3455.5W37–34OY
Sat 10/4Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.5W38–3055.5W38–30OY
Sat 10/11Cincinnati vs UCF-10.0W20–1155.5W20–11UN
Sat 10/18Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-23.5W49–1757.5W49–17OY
Sat 10/25Cincinnati vs Baylor-3.5W41–2068.5W41–20UY
Sat 11/1Cincinnati at Utah+11.5L14–4557.5L14–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Cincinnati vs Arizona-6.5L24–3056.5L24–30UN
Sat 11/22Cincinnati vs BYU+2.5L14–2656.5L14–26UN
Sat 11/29Cincinnati at TCU+3.0L23–4558.5L23–45ON
Fri 1/2Cincinnati vs Navy+7.5L13–3557.5L13–35UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Iowa State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State #60
+0.398
Cincinnati #17
+0.381
Iowa State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #52
+0.555
Cincinnati #14
+0.665
Cincinnati Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State #46
0.167
Cincinnati #128
0.122
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #85
+7.472
Cincinnati #11
+7.655
Cincinnati Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State #43
+0.899
Cincinnati #25
+0.857
Iowa State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State #49
70.1
Cincinnati #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
3.1
Cincinnati
-1.3
Offense Rating
Iowa State
15.7
Cincinnati
13.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
Cincinnati
15.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #79
1.00
Cincinnati #49
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #47
0.25
Cincinnati #43
0.33
Iowa State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
66.9
Cincinnati #1
58.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #30
11.5
Cincinnati #65
26.1
Iowa State +8.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Cincinnati
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Cincinnati
93.3 — 4.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Cincinnati won by 8
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
63–51 (55%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 2 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
8–16 (33%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Brad Glenn Yr 3 #1
DC Tyson Veidt Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself