Iowa State at TCU Week 11 College Football Matchup Iowa State at TCU Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 8 2025 · Week 11 · 🏟 Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth, TX · Turf · 45,000 cap
Iowa State✈ 674 miSame TZ
20 17
Final
TCU
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
26
ISU +7.5
TCU
30
P&R Line TCU -4
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 86 High
Vegas TCU -7.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
TCU has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor TCU entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
TCU wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
TCU wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
TCU -7.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Iowa State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 TCU Coming off BYE
Iowa State 2025 Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.5W24–2151.5W24–21UY
Sat 8/30Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.5W55–747.5W55–7OY
Sat 9/6Iowa State vs Iowa-3.0W16–1343.0W16–13UN
Sat 9/13Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.0W24–1655.5W24–16UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Iowa State vs Arizona-4.0W39–1448.5W39–14OY
Sat 10/4Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.5L30–3855.5L30–38ON
Sat 10/11Iowa State at Colorado-3.0L17–2452.5L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Iowa State vs BYU-2.5L27–4148.5L27–41ON
Sat 11/1Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.5L19–2448.5L19–24UN
Sat 11/8Iowa State at TCU+7.5W20–1758.5W20–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Iowa State vs Kansas-3.0W38–1455.5W38–14UY
Sat 11/29Iowa State at Oklahoma State-13.5W20–1347.5W20–13UN
TCU 2025 Schedule
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1TCU at North Carolina-3.0W48–1459.5W48–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/13TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.5W42–2160.5W42–21ON
Sat 9/20TCU vs SMU-6.5W35–2463.5W35–24UY
Fri 9/26TCU at Arizona State+2.5L24–2754.5L24–27UN
Sat 10/4TCU vs Colorado-13.5W35–2157.5W35–21UY
Sat 10/11TCU at Kansas State-3.0L28–4154.5L28–41ON
Sat 10/18TCU vs Baylor-3.5W42–3666.5W42–36OY
Sat 10/25TCU at West Virginia-16.5W23–1755.5W23–17UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8TCU vs Iowa State-7.5L17–2058.5L17–20UN
Sat 11/15TCU at BYU+3.0L13–4451.5L13–44ON
Sat 11/22TCU at Houston-1.5W17–1455.5W17–14UY
Sat 11/29TCU vs Cincinnati-3.0W45–2358.5W45–23OY
Tue 12/30TCU vs USC+4.5W30–2756.5W30–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Iowa State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State #60
+0.333
TCU #36
+0.307
Iowa State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #52
+0.589
TCU #20
+0.659
TCU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State #46
0.167
TCU #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #85
+7.029
TCU #34
+7.197
TCU Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State #43
+0.851
TCU #48
+0.836
Iowa State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State #49
70.1
TCU #48
70.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
TCU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
TCU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
3.1
TCU
6.6
Offense Rating
Iowa State
15.7
TCU
17.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
TCU
11.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? TCU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #79
0.63
TCU #36
1.29
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #47
0.88
TCU #33
0.71
TCU +0.66
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? TCU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
47.9
TCU #1
60.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #30
33.0
TCU #27
20.1
TCU +13.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
TCU
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Iowa State
32.3 — 37.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on TCU with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
63–51 (55%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 2 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
TCU
Sonny Dykes #1
26–13 (67%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kendal Briles Yr 3 #1
DC Andy Avalos Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself