UCF at Kansas State Week 5 College Football Matchup UCF at Kansas State Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 27 2025 · Week 5 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
UCF✈ 1,144 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
20 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UCF
19
Kansas State
32
P&R Line Kansas State -13
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -5.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
UCF has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UCF entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
UCF wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
UCF wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -5.5
O/U 48.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Kansas State Coming off BYE
UCF 2025 Schedule
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.5W17–1053.5W17–10UN
Sat 9/6UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.0W68–751.0W68–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20UCF vs North Carolina-7.0W34–946.5W34–9UY
Sat 9/27UCF at Kansas State+5.5L20–3448.5L20–34ON
Sat 10/4UCF vs Kansas+4.0L20–2753.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/11UCF at Cincinnati+10.0L11–2055.5L11–20UY
Sat 10/18UCF vs West Virginia-6.5W45–1346.5W45–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1UCF at Baylor+3.0L3–3058.5L3–30UN
Fri 11/7UCF vs Houston-1.5L27–3047.5L27–30ON
Sat 11/15UCF at Texas Tech+24.5L9–4848.5L9–48ON
Sat 11/22UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.5W17–1447.5W17–14UN
Sat 11/29UCF at BYU+17.5L21–4146.5L21–41ON
Kansas State 2025 Schedule
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.5L21–2451.5L21–24UN
Sat 8/30Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.5W38–3555.5W38–35ON
Sat 9/6Kansas State vs Army-17.0L21–2448.5L21–24UN
Fri 9/12Kansas State at Arizona-1.5L17–2355.5L17–23UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Kansas State vs UCF-5.5W34–2048.5W34–20OY
Sat 10/4Kansas State at Baylor+4.5L34–3559.5L34–35OY
Sat 10/11Kansas State vs TCU+3.0W41–2854.5W41–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Kansas State at Kansas+3.5W42–1755.5W42–17OY
Sat 11/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.5L20–4351.5L20–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.5W14–650.5W14–6UN
Sat 11/22Kansas State at Utah+18.5L47–5152.5L47–51OY
Sat 11/29Kansas State vs Colorado-16.5W24–1450.5W24–14UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UCF #88
+0.266
Kansas State #45
+0.325
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UCF #104
+0.335
Kansas State #65
+0.409
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UCF #54
0.164
Kansas State #46
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UCF #94
+6.939
Kansas State #32
+7.675
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UCF #107
+0.786
Kansas State #92
+0.845
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UCF #85
71.6
Kansas State #44
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UCF
4.2
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
UCF
17.6
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UCF
13.4
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UCF Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UCF #83
1.00
Kansas State #53
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #89
0.50
Kansas State #64
0.67
UCF +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UCF Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UCF #1
72.4
Kansas State #1
37.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #98
8.9
Kansas State #23
36.5
UCF +34.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UCF with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UCF
Scott Frost #1
19–7 (73%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Steve Cooper Yr 1 #1
DC Alex Grinch Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
47–28 (63%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Matt Wells Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself