Iowa State at Colorado Week 7 College Football Matchup Iowa State at Colorado Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 11 2025 · Week 7 · 🏟 Folsom Field Boulder, CO · Turf · 50,183 cap
Iowa State✈ 621 mi-1 hr TZ
17 24
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
33
Colorado
18
P&R Line Iowa State -15.5
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Iowa State -3 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Colorado, while Game Control favors Iowa State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Colorado wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -3
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Iowa State 2nd straight Road Game
Iowa State 2025 Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.5W24–2151.5W24–21UY
Sat 8/30Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.5W55–747.5W55–7OY
Sat 9/6Iowa State vs Iowa-3.0W16–1343.0W16–13UN
Sat 9/13Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.0W24–1655.5W24–16UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Iowa State vs Arizona-4.0W39–1448.5W39–14OY
Sat 10/4Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.5L30–3855.5L30–38ON
Sat 10/11Iowa State at Colorado-3.0L17–2452.5L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Iowa State vs BYU-2.5L27–4148.5L27–41ON
Sat 11/1Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.5L19–2448.5L19–24UN
Sat 11/8Iowa State at TCU+7.5W20–1758.5W20–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Iowa State vs Kansas-3.0W38–1455.5W38–14UY
Sat 11/29Iowa State at Oklahoma State-13.5W20–1347.5W20–13UN
Colorado 2025 Schedule
Colorado's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Colorado vs Georgia Tech+4.0L20–2755.5L20–27UN
Sat 9/6Colorado vs Delaware-23.5W31–749.5W31–7UY
Fri 9/12Colorado at Houston+4.0L20–3645.5L20–36ON
Sat 9/20Colorado vs Wyoming-12.5W37–2045.5W37–20OY
Sat 9/27Colorado vs BYU+6.5L21–2448.5L21–24UY
Sat 10/4Colorado at TCU+13.5L21–3557.5L21–35UN
Sat 10/11Colorado vs Iowa State+3.0W24–1752.5W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Colorado at Utah+14.5L7–5350.5L7–53ON
Sat 11/1Colorado vs Arizona+4.0L17–5252.5L17–52ON
Sat 11/8Colorado at West Virginia+6.5L22–2951.5L22–29UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Colorado vs Arizona State+7.0L17–4247.5L17–42ON
Sat 11/29Colorado at Kansas State+16.5L14–2450.5L14–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Iowa State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State #60
+0.400
Colorado #99
+0.211
Iowa State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #52
+0.696
Colorado #84
+0.462
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State #46
0.167
Colorado #80
0.151
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #85
+7.554
Colorado #95
+6.542
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State #43
+0.878
Colorado #131
+0.746
Iowa State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State #49
70.1
Colorado #78
71.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
4.1
Colorado
0.1
Offense Rating
Iowa State
16.7
Colorado
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
Colorado
15.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Colorado Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #79
0.80
Colorado #112
0.83
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #47
0.80
Colorado #76
1.17
Colorado +0.03
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
56.6
Colorado #1
48.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #30
25.1
Colorado #108
32.5
Iowa State +8.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
63–51 (55%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 2 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
13–11 (54%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Pat Shurmur Yr 2 #1
DC Robert Livingston Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself