Sat, Aug 30 2025
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Week 1
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🏟 Jack Trice Stadium
Ames, IA
·
Turf
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61,500 cap
South Dakota✈ 176 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Iowa State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -16.5
O/U 47.5
Bovada
South Dakota 2025 Schedule
South Dakota's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | South Dakota at Iowa State | +16.5L7–55 | 47.5 | L7–55 | O | N |
Iowa State 2025 Schedule
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Iowa State vs Kansas State | +2.5W24–21 | 51.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/30 | Iowa State vs South Dakota | -16.5W55–7 | 47.5 | W55–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Iowa State vs Iowa | -3.0W16–13 | 43.0 | W16–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Iowa State at Arkansas State | -21.0W24–16 | 55.5 | W24–16 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Iowa State vs Arizona | -4.0W39–14 | 48.5 | W39–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Iowa State at Cincinnati | +1.5L30–38 | 55.5 | L30–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Iowa State at Colorado | -3.0L17–24 | 52.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Iowa State vs BYU | -2.5L27–41 | 48.5 | L27–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Iowa State vs Arizona State | -7.5L19–24 | 48.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Iowa State at TCU | +7.5W20–17 | 58.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Iowa State vs Kansas | -3.0W38–14 | 55.5 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Iowa State at Oklahoma State | -13.5W20–13 | 47.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Dakota Edge
South Dakota +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +30.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓