Miami (OH) at Ball State Week 11 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Ball State Matchup - Week 11
Wed, Nov 6 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Scheumann Stadium Muncie, IN · Turf · 22,500 cap
27 21
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
35
M-OH -12.5
Ball State
17
P&R Line Miami (OH) -18
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -12.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH) has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Miami (OH) wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -12.5
O/U 48.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami (OH) · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Ball State Coming off BYE 🛋 Miami (OH) Coming off BYE
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami (OH) vs Northwestern+4.0L6–1343.0L6–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati+3.5L16–2747.5L16–27UN
Sat 9/21Miami (OH) at Notre Dame+27.5L3–2844.0L3–28UY
Sat 9/28Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts-15.5W23–2044.5W23–20UN
Sat 10/5Miami (OH) at Toledo+4.5L20–3044.0L20–30ON
Sat 10/12Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-3.0W38–1445.5W38–14OY
Sat 10/19Miami (OH) vs Ohio-3.5W30–2043.5W30–20OY
Sat 10/26Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan-10.5W46–748.5W46–7OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Miami (OH) at Ball State-12.5W27–2148.5W27–21UN
Wed 11/13Miami (OH) vs Kent State-31.0W34–747.5W34–7UN
Tue 11/19Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois-1.5W20–943.0W20–9UY
Fri 11/29Miami (OH) at Bowling Green+3.0W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 12/7Miami (OH) vs Ohio-2.5L3–3843.5L3–38UN
Sat 12/28Miami (OH) vs Colorado State-1.0W43–1742.5W43–17OY
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/7Ball State vs Missouri State-2.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 9/14Ball State at Miami+36.5L0–6255.5L0–62ON
Sat 9/21Ball State at Central Michigan+6.5L34–3751.0L34–37OY
Sat 9/28Ball State at James Madison+22.0L7–6356.5L7–63ON
Sat 10/5Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.0L42–4557.5L42–45OY
Sat 10/12Ball State at Kent State-3.0W37–3558.0W37–35ON
Sat 10/19Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.5L14–2457.5L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.5W25–2347.5W25–23OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.5L21–2748.5L21–27UY
Tue 11/12Ball State at Buffalo+3.5L48–5155.5L48–51OY
Sat 11/23Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.5L13–3854.5L13–38UN
Fri 11/29Ball State at Ohio+17.5L21–4251.5L21–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #95
+0.465
Ball State #98
+0.260
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #87
+0.662
Ball State #98
+0.300
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #35
0.182
Ball State #116
0.134
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #108
+8.241
Ball State #65
+6.848
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #97
+0.872
Ball State #78
+0.856
Miami (OH) Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #1
60.9
Ball State #41
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Ball State
-21.7
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Ball State
5.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Ball State
27.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #68
1.13
Ball State #111
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #15
0.50
Ball State #132
2.71
Miami (OH) +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
40.2
Ball State #1
37.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #55
40.4
Ball State #104
42.7
Miami (OH) +2.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami (OH), but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 2 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Jared Elliott Yr 2 #1
DC Jeff Knowles Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself