Wed, Nov 6 2024
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Scheumann Stadium
Muncie, IN
·
Turf
·
22,500 cap
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH)
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Miami (OH) wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -12.5
O/U 48.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami (OH)
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Miami (OH) vs Northwestern | +4.0L6–13 | 43.0 | L6–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati | +3.5L16–27 | 47.5 | L16–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Miami (OH) at Notre Dame | +27.5L3–28 | 44.0 | L3–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts | -15.5W23–20 | 44.5 | W23–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Miami (OH) at Toledo | +4.5L20–30 | 44.0 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan | -3.0W38–14 | 45.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Miami (OH) vs Ohio | -3.5W30–20 | 43.5 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan | -10.5W46–7 | 48.5 | W46–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Miami (OH) at Ball State | -12.5W27–21 | 48.5 | W27–21 | U | N |
| Wed 11/13 | Miami (OH) vs Kent State | -31.0W34–7 | 47.5 | W34–7 | U | N |
| Tue 11/19 | Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois | -1.5W20–9 | 43.0 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Miami (OH) at Bowling Green | +3.0W28–12 | 37.5 | W28–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Miami (OH) vs Ohio | -2.5L3–38 | 43.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 12/28 | Miami (OH) vs Colorado State | -1.0W43–17 | 42.5 | W43–17 | O | Y |
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/7 | Ball State vs Missouri State | -2.5W42–34 | 50.5 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Ball State at Miami | +36.5L0–62 | 55.5 | L0–62 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Ball State at Central Michigan | +6.5L34–37 | 51.0 | L34–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Ball State at James Madison | +22.0L7–63 | 56.5 | L7–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Ball State vs Western Michigan | +10.0L42–45 | 57.5 | L42–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Ball State at Kent State | -3.0W37–35 | 58.0 | W37–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Ball State at Vanderbilt | +27.5L14–24 | 57.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Ball State vs Northern Illinois | +13.5W25–23 | 47.5 | W25–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Ball State vs Miami (OH) | +12.5L21–27 | 48.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/12 | Ball State at Buffalo | +3.5L48–51 | 55.5 | L48–51 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Ball State vs Bowling Green | +12.5L13–38 | 54.5 | L13–38 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Ball State at Ohio | +17.5L21–42 | 51.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +2.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Miami (OH), but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Patrick Welsh
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bill Brechin
Yr 3
#1
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Jared Elliott
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jeff Knowles
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

