Wed, Nov 20 2024
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Yager Stadium
Oxford, OH
·
Turf
·
24,286 cap
Northern Illinois✈ 269 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Northern Illinois wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -1.5
O/U 43.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Northern Illinois
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Northern Illinois 2024 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois | -36.5W54–15 | 55.5 | W54–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Northern Illinois at Notre Dame | +28.5W16–14 | 46.5 | W16–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Northern Illinois vs Buffalo | -13.0L20–23 | 42.5 | L20–23 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Northern Illinois at NC State | +7.0L17–24 | 46.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts | -14.0W34–20 | 41.0 | W34–20 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Northern Illinois at Bowling Green | +3.0W17–7 | 46.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Northern Illinois vs Toledo | -3.0L6–13 | 42.5 | L6–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Northern Illinois at Ball State | -13.5L23–25 | 47.5 | L23–25 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Northern Illinois at Western Michigan | -2.5W42–28 | 51.5 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/13 | Northern Illinois vs Akron | -14.0W29–16 | 43.5 | W29–16 | O | N |
| Tue 11/19 | Northern Illinois at Miami (OH) | +1.5L9–20 | 43.0 | L9–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan | -16.5W24–16 | 41.5 | W24–16 | U | N |
| Mon 12/23 | Northern Illinois vs Fresno State | -2.0W28–20 | 41.0 | W28–20 | O | Y |
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Miami (OH) vs Northwestern | +4.0L6–13 | 43.0 | L6–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati | +3.5L16–27 | 47.5 | L16–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Miami (OH) at Notre Dame | +27.5L3–28 | 44.0 | L3–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts | -15.5W23–20 | 44.5 | W23–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Miami (OH) at Toledo | +4.5L20–30 | 44.0 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan | -3.0W38–14 | 45.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Miami (OH) vs Ohio | -3.5W30–20 | 43.5 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan | -10.5W46–7 | 48.5 | W46–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Miami (OH) at Ball State | -12.5W27–21 | 48.5 | W27–21 | U | N |
| Wed 11/13 | Miami (OH) vs Kent State | -31.0W34–7 | 47.5 | W34–7 | U | N |
| Tue 11/19 | Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois | -1.5W20–9 | 43.0 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Miami (OH) at Bowling Green | +3.0W28–12 | 37.5 | W28–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Miami (OH) vs Ohio | -2.5L3–38 | 43.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 12/28 | Miami (OH) vs Colorado State | -1.0W43–17 | 42.5 | W43–17 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northern Illinois +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Northern Illinois Edge
Northern Illinois +3.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami (OH)
2 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
78.1 — 8.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 11
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
24–33 (42%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Wesley Beschorner
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nick Benedetto
Yr 3
#1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Patrick Welsh
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bill Brechin
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓