Ball State at Ohio Week 14 College Football Matchup Ball State at Ohio Matchup - Week 14
Fri, Nov 29 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Peden Stadium Athens, OH · Turf · 24,000 cap
Ball State✈ 186 miSame TZ
21 42
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ball State
17
OHIO -17.5
Ohio
38
P&R Line Ohio -21
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Ohio -17.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Ohio has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Ohio entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Ohio wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Ohio wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ohio -17.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/7Ball State vs Missouri State-2.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 9/14Ball State at Miami+36.5L0–6255.5L0–62ON
Sat 9/21Ball State at Central Michigan+6.5L34–3751.0L34–37OY
Sat 9/28Ball State at James Madison+22.0L7–6356.5L7–63ON
Sat 10/5Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.0L42–4557.5L42–45OY
Sat 10/12Ball State at Kent State-3.0W37–3558.0W37–35ON
Sat 10/19Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.5L14–2457.5L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.5W25–2347.5W25–23OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.5L21–2748.5L21–27UY
Tue 11/12Ball State at Buffalo+3.5L48–5155.5L48–51OY
Sat 11/23Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.5L13–3854.5L13–38UN
Fri 11/29Ball State at Ohio+17.5L21–4251.5L21–42ON
Ohio 2024 Schedule
Ohio's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Ohio at Syracuse+17.5L22–3847.5L22–38OY
Sat 9/7Ohio vs South Alabama+1.5W27–2055.5W27–20UY
Sat 9/14Ohio vs Morgan State-24.5W21–645.5W21–6UN
Sat 9/21Ohio at Kentucky+19.0L6–4142.0L6–41ON
Sat 9/28Ohio vs Akron-8.5W30–1046.0W30–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Ohio at Central Michigan-3.0W27–2550.5W27–25ON
Sat 10/19Ohio at Miami (OH)+3.5L20–3043.5L20–30ON
Sat 10/26Ohio vs Buffalo-4.0W47–1646.5W47–16OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6Ohio at Kent State-20.5W41–053.5W41–0UY
Wed 11/13Ohio vs Eastern Michigan-10.5W35–1051.5W35–10UY
Wed 11/20Ohio at Toledo+1.5W24–747.0W24–7UY
Fri 11/29Ohio vs Ball State-17.5W42–2151.5W42–21OY
Sat 12/7Ohio vs Miami (OH)+2.5W38–343.5W38–3UY
Fri 12/20Ohio vs Jacksonville State-6.5W30–2757.5W30–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Ohio PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ball State #98
+0.235
Ohio #40
+0.556
Ohio Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #98
+0.407
Ohio #80
+0.673
Ohio Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ball State #116
0.134
Ohio #14
0.197
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Ohio Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #65
+7.729
Ohio #47
+8.959
Ohio Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ball State #78
+0.790
Ohio #30
+0.923
Ohio Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ball State #41
69.7
Ohio #94
72.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ball State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Ohio Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ball State
-21.7
Ohio
-10.3
Offense Rating
Ball State
5.9
Ohio
7.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ball State
27.6
Ohio
17.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Ohio Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ball State #111
0.90
Ohio #26
1.10
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #132
2.20
Ohio #95
1.10
Ohio +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Ohio Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ball State #1
34.5
Ohio #1
46.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #104
44.9
Ohio #27
34.4
Ohio +12.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ohio
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Ohio
82.6 — 9.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ohio won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Ohio with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Jared Elliott Yr 2 #1
DC Jeff Knowles Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
23–16 (59%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Brian Smith Yr 1 #1
DC John Hauser Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself