Ball State at Buffalo Week 12 College Football Matchup Ball State at Buffalo Matchup - Week 12
Wed, Nov 13 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 UB Stadium Amherst, NY · Turf · 29,013 cap
Ball State✈ 393 miSame TZ
48 51
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ball State
22
Buffalo
37
P&R Line Buffalo -15.5
P&R Total O/U 59
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Buffalo -3.5 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Ball State, while Game Control favors Buffalo. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ball State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Buffalo -3.5
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Buffalo · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Buffalo Coming off BYE
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/7Ball State vs Missouri State-2.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 9/14Ball State at Miami+36.5L0–6255.5L0–62ON
Sat 9/21Ball State at Central Michigan+6.5L34–3751.0L34–37OY
Sat 9/28Ball State at James Madison+22.0L7–6356.5L7–63ON
Sat 10/5Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.0L42–4557.5L42–45OY
Sat 10/12Ball State at Kent State-3.0W37–3558.0W37–35ON
Sat 10/19Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.5L14–2457.5L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.5W25–2347.5W25–23OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.5L21–2748.5L21–27UY
Tue 11/12Ball State at Buffalo+3.5L48–5155.5L48–51OY
Sat 11/23Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.5L13–3854.5L13–38UN
Fri 11/29Ball State at Ohio+17.5L21–4251.5L21–42ON
Buffalo 2024 Schedule
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Buffalo vs Lafayette-3.5W30–1345.5W30–13UY
Sat 9/7Buffalo at Missouri+34.5L0–3853.5L0–38UN
Sat 9/14Buffalo vs Massachusetts-3.5W34–345.5W34–3UY
Sat 9/21Buffalo at Northern Illinois+13.0W23–2042.5W23–20OY
Sat 9/28Buffalo at UConn+6.0L3–4744.5L3–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Buffalo vs Toledo+10.5W30–1544.5W30–15OY
Sat 10/19Buffalo vs Western Michigan+1.0L41–4849.5L41–48ON
Sat 10/26Buffalo at Ohio+4.0L16–4746.5L16–47ON
Sat 11/2Buffalo at Akron+1.0W41–3049.0W41–30OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/12Buffalo vs Ball State-3.5W51–4855.5W51–48ON
Wed 11/20Buffalo at Eastern Michigan+1.0W37–2053.5W37–20OY
Tue 11/26Buffalo vs Kent State-23.5W43–750.5W43–7UY
Sat 1/4Buffalo vs Liberty-4.5W26–750.5W26–7UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Buffalo PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Buffalo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Buffalo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ball State #98
+0.313
Buffalo #77
+0.488
Buffalo Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #98
+0.467
Buffalo #47
+0.734
Buffalo Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ball State #116
0.134
Buffalo #33
0.183
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Buffalo Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #65
+7.776
Buffalo #41
+9.032
Buffalo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ball State #78
+0.849
Buffalo #104
+0.861
Buffalo Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ball State #41
69.7
Buffalo #24
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Buffalo Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Buffalo Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ball State
-21.6
Buffalo
-10.8
Offense Rating
Ball State
5.9
Buffalo
7.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ball State
27.5
Buffalo
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Ball State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ball State #111
0.88
Buffalo #119
0.38
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #132
2.38
Buffalo #67
1.13
Ball State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Buffalo Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ball State #1
35.1
Buffalo #1
44.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #104
43.6
Buffalo #56
41.5
Buffalo +9.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ball State
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Ball State
17.0 — 55.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Buffalo won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Jared Elliott Yr 2 #1
DC Jeff Knowles Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dave Patenaude Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Bowen Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself