Sat, Oct 19 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Yager Stadium
Oxford, OH
·
Turf
·
24,286 cap
Ohio✈ 141 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Ohio
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ohio entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ohio wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Ohio wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -3.5
O/U 43.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio 2024 Schedule
Ohio's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Ohio at Syracuse | +17.5L22–38 | 47.5 | L22–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Ohio vs South Alabama | +1.5W27–20 | 55.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Ohio vs Morgan State | -24.5W21–6 | 45.5 | W21–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Ohio at Kentucky | +19.0L6–41 | 42.0 | L6–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Ohio vs Akron | -8.5W30–10 | 46.0 | W30–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Ohio at Central Michigan | -3.0W27–25 | 50.5 | W27–25 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Ohio at Miami (OH) | +3.5L20–30 | 43.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Ohio vs Buffalo | -4.0W47–16 | 46.5 | W47–16 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Ohio at Kent State | -20.5W41–0 | 53.5 | W41–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/13 | Ohio vs Eastern Michigan | -10.5W35–10 | 51.5 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/20 | Ohio at Toledo | +1.5W24–7 | 47.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Ohio vs Ball State | -17.5W42–21 | 51.5 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Ohio vs Miami (OH) | +2.5W38–3 | 43.5 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Ohio vs Jacksonville State | -6.5W30–27 | 57.5 | W30–27 | U | N |
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Miami (OH) vs Northwestern | +4.0L6–13 | 43.0 | L6–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati | +3.5L16–27 | 47.5 | L16–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Miami (OH) at Notre Dame | +27.5L3–28 | 44.0 | L3–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts | -15.5W23–20 | 44.5 | W23–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Miami (OH) at Toledo | +4.5L20–30 | 44.0 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan | -3.0W38–14 | 45.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Miami (OH) vs Ohio | -3.5W30–20 | 43.5 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan | -10.5W46–7 | 48.5 | W46–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Miami (OH) at Ball State | -12.5W27–21 | 48.5 | W27–21 | U | N |
| Wed 11/13 | Miami (OH) vs Kent State | -31.0W34–7 | 47.5 | W34–7 | U | N |
| Tue 11/19 | Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois | -1.5W20–9 | 43.0 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Miami (OH) at Bowling Green | +3.0W28–12 | 37.5 | W28–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Miami (OH) vs Ohio | -2.5L3–38 | 43.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 12/28 | Miami (OH) vs Colorado State | -1.0W43–17 | 42.5 | W43–17 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +0.43
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +16.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami (OH)
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
79.9 — 8.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ohio with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
23–16 (59%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Brian Smith
Yr 1
#1
DC
John Hauser
Yr 1
#1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Patrick Welsh
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bill Brechin
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

