Massachusetts at Miami (OH) Week 5 College Football Matchup Massachusetts at Miami (OH) Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Yager Stadium Oxford, OH · Turf · 24,286 cap
Massachusetts✈ 665 miSame TZ
20 23
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Massachusetts
14
M-OH -15.5
Miami (OH)
34
P&R Line Miami (OH) -20.5
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -15.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Massachusetts, while Game Control favors Miami (OH). Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Massachusetts wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Miami (OH) wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -15.5
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami (OH) · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Massachusetts 2024 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan-2.5L14–2849.0L14–28UN
Sat 9/7Massachusetts at Toledo+17.5L23–3850.5L23–38OY
Sat 9/14Massachusetts at Buffalo+3.5L3–3445.5L3–34UN
Sat 9/21Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut-19.5W35–3152.0W35–31ON
Sat 9/28Massachusetts at Miami (OH)+15.5L20–2344.5L20–23UY
Sat 10/5Massachusetts at Northern Illinois+14.0L20–3441.0L20–34OY
Sat 10/12Massachusetts vs Missouri+27.0L3–4554.0L3–45UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26Massachusetts vs Wagner-23.0W35–748.0W35–7UY
Sat 11/2Massachusetts at Mississippi State+19.5L20–4559.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Massachusetts vs Liberty+17.0L34–3553.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/23Massachusetts at Georgia+42.5L21–5955.5L21–59OY
Sat 11/30Massachusetts vs UConn+9.5L42–4749.5L42–47OY
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami (OH) vs Northwestern+4.0L6–1343.0L6–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati+3.5L16–2747.5L16–27UN
Sat 9/21Miami (OH) at Notre Dame+27.5L3–2844.0L3–28UY
Sat 9/28Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts-15.5W23–2044.5W23–20UN
Sat 10/5Miami (OH) at Toledo+4.5L20–3044.0L20–30ON
Sat 10/12Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-3.0W38–1445.5W38–14OY
Sat 10/19Miami (OH) vs Ohio-3.5W30–2043.5W30–20OY
Sat 10/26Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan-10.5W46–748.5W46–7OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Miami (OH) at Ball State-12.5W27–2148.5W27–21UN
Wed 11/13Miami (OH) vs Kent State-31.0W34–747.5W34–7UN
Tue 11/19Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois-1.5W20–943.0W20–9UY
Fri 11/29Miami (OH) at Bowling Green+3.0W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 12/7Miami (OH) vs Ohio-2.5L3–3843.5L3–38UN
Sat 12/28Miami (OH) vs Colorado State-1.0W43–1742.5W43–17OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Massachusetts #69
+0.310
Miami (OH) #95
+0.404
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #81
+0.344
Miami (OH) #87
+0.517
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #106
0.140
Miami (OH) #35
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #89
+6.639
Miami (OH) #108
+8.086
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #94
+0.844
Miami (OH) #97
+0.871
Miami (OH) Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #131
74.6
Miami (OH) #1
60.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Massachusetts
-27.8
Miami (OH)
0.7
Offense Rating
Massachusetts
1.1
Miami (OH)
14.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Massachusetts
29.1
Miami (OH)
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Massachusetts Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Massachusetts #103
0.33
Miami (OH) #68
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #124
0.67
Miami (OH) #15
0.67
Massachusetts +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Massachusetts #1
17.1
Miami (OH) #1
17.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #115
64.2
Miami (OH) #55
60.4
Miami (OH) +0.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
4–20 (17%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shane Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Dudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 2 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself