Western Michigan at Ball State Week 6 College Football Matchup Western Michigan at Ball State Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 5 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Scheumann Stadium Muncie, IN · Turf · 22,500 cap
Western Michigan✈ 143 miSame TZ
45 42
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Michigan
34
Ball State
26
P&R Line Western Michigan -8.5
P&R Total O/U 59.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Western Michigan -10 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Western Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -10
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Western Michigan 2nd straight Road Game
Western Michigan 2024 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Western Michigan at Wisconsin+24.0L14–2857.0L14–28UY
Sat 9/7Western Michigan at Ohio State+37.5L0–5654.5L0–56ON
Sat 9/14Western Michigan vs Bethune-Cookman-33.5W59–3154.5W59–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Western Michigan at Marshall+3.5L20–2753.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/5Western Michigan at Ball State-10.0W45–4257.5W45–42ON
Sat 10/12Western Michigan vs Akron-9.5W34–2448.5W34–24OY
Sat 10/19Western Michigan at Buffalo-1.0W48–4149.5W48–41OY
Sat 10/26Western Michigan vs Kent State-19.0W52–2161.0W52–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois+2.5L28–4251.5L28–42ON
Tue 11/12Western Michigan at Bowling Green+9.5L13–3157.5L13–31UN
Tue 11/19Western Michigan at Central Michigan-6.0L14–1656.0L14–16UN
Sat 11/30Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-6.5W26–1856.5W26–18UY
Sat 12/14Western Michigan vs South Alabama+6.0L23–3053.5L23–30UN
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/7Ball State vs Missouri State-2.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 9/14Ball State at Miami+36.5L0–6255.5L0–62ON
Sat 9/21Ball State at Central Michigan+6.5L34–3751.0L34–37OY
Sat 9/28Ball State at James Madison+22.0L7–6356.5L7–63ON
Sat 10/5Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.0L42–4557.5L42–45OY
Sat 10/12Ball State at Kent State-3.0W37–3558.0W37–35ON
Sat 10/19Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.5L14–2457.5L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.5W25–2347.5W25–23OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.5L21–2748.5L21–27UY
Tue 11/12Ball State at Buffalo+3.5L48–5155.5L48–51OY
Sat 11/23Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.5L13–3854.5L13–38UN
Fri 11/29Ball State at Ohio+17.5L21–4251.5L21–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Western Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Michigan #43
+0.553
Ball State #98
+0.434
Western Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #40
+0.759
Ball State #98
+0.624
Western Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #44
0.176
Ball State #116
0.134
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #49
+8.918
Ball State #65
+8.313
Western Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Michigan #33
+0.917
Ball State #78
+0.912
Western Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Michigan #22
68.7
Ball State #41
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Western Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Michigan
-5.3
Ball State
-21.6
Offense Rating
Western Michigan
14.5
Ball State
5.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Michigan
19.9
Ball State
27.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Western Michigan #116
0.33
Ball State #111
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #121
1.67
Ball State #132
4.67
Western Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Michigan #1
34.9
Ball State #1
24.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #82
50.4
Ball State #104
56.2
Western Michigan +10.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Western Michigan
1 — 3 sequences
GC Battle
Western Michigan
21.0 — 53.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Western Michigan won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Walt Bell Yr 1 #1
DC Scott Power Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Jared Elliott Yr 2 #1
DC Jeff Knowles Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself