Ball State at Kent State Week 7 College Football Matchup Ball State at Kent State Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Dix Stadium Kent, OH · Turf · 25,000 cap
Ball State✈ 224 miSame TZ
37 35
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ball State
35
Kent State
26
P&R Line Ball State -9
P&R Total O/U 60
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Ball State -3 · O/U 58.0
Matchup Prediction
Ball State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Ball State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ball State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Ball State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Ball State -3
O/U 58.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ball State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Kent State Coming off BYE
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/7Ball State vs Missouri State-2.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 9/14Ball State at Miami+36.5L0–6255.5L0–62ON
Sat 9/21Ball State at Central Michigan+6.5L34–3751.0L34–37OY
Sat 9/28Ball State at James Madison+22.0L7–6356.5L7–63ON
Sat 10/5Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.0L42–4557.5L42–45OY
Sat 10/12Ball State at Kent State-3.0W37–3558.0W37–35ON
Sat 10/19Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.5L14–2457.5L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.5W25–2347.5W25–23OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.5L21–2748.5L21–27UY
Tue 11/12Ball State at Buffalo+3.5L48–5155.5L48–51OY
Sat 11/23Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.5L13–3854.5L13–38UN
Fri 11/29Ball State at Ohio+17.5L21–4251.5L21–42ON
Kent State 2024 Schedule
Kent State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kent State at Pittsburgh+23.5L24–5555.5L24–55ON
Sat 9/7Kent State vs St. Francis (PA)-17.5L17–2349.5L17–23UN
Sat 9/14Kent State at Tennessee+49.5L0–7161.5L0–71ON
Sat 9/21Kent State at Penn State+49.0L0–5658.0L0–56UN
Sat 9/28Kent State vs Eastern Michigan+14.0L33–5246.0L33–52ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kent State vs Ball State+3.0L35–3758.0L35–37OY
Sat 10/19Kent State at Bowling Green+24.0L6–2754.5L6–27UY
Sat 10/26Kent State at Western Michigan+19.0L21–5261.0L21–52ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6Kent State vs Ohio+20.5L0–4153.5L0–41UN
Wed 11/13Kent State at Miami (OH)+31.0L7–3447.5L7–34UY
Tue 11/19Kent State vs Akron+10.5L17–3849.0L17–38ON
Tue 11/26Kent State at Buffalo+23.5L7–4350.5L7–43UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Ball State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ball State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ball State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ball State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ball State #98
+0.488
Kent State #131
+0.324
Ball State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #98
+0.598
Kent State #109
+0.577
Ball State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ball State #116
0.134
Kent State #127
0.123
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Ball State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #65
+8.275
Kent State #130
+7.699
Ball State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ball State #78
+0.921
Kent State #134
+0.770
Ball State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ball State #41
69.7
Kent State #111
72.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ball State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kent State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ball State
-21.6
Kent State
-16.7
Offense Rating
Ball State
5.9
Kent State
7.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ball State
27.5
Kent State
24.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Ball State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ball State #111
0.50
Kent State #134
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #132
4.25
Kent State #134
5.00
Ball State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Ball State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ball State #1
23.7
Kent State #1
6.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #104
55.6
Kent State #140
83.4
Ball State +16.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Ball State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Jared Elliott Yr 2 #1
DC Jeff Knowles Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–11 (8%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mark Carney Yr 1 #1
DC David Duggan Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself