Sat, Oct 12 2024
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Dix Stadium
Kent, OH
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Ball State✈ 224 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Ball State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ball State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ball State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Ball State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Ball State -3
O/U 58.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ball State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/7 | Ball State vs Missouri State | -2.5W42–34 | 50.5 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Ball State at Miami | +36.5L0–62 | 55.5 | L0–62 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Ball State at Central Michigan | +6.5L34–37 | 51.0 | L34–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Ball State at James Madison | +22.0L7–63 | 56.5 | L7–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Ball State vs Western Michigan | +10.0L42–45 | 57.5 | L42–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Ball State at Kent State | -3.0W37–35 | 58.0 | W37–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Ball State at Vanderbilt | +27.5L14–24 | 57.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Ball State vs Northern Illinois | +13.5W25–23 | 47.5 | W25–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Ball State vs Miami (OH) | +12.5L21–27 | 48.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/12 | Ball State at Buffalo | +3.5L48–51 | 55.5 | L48–51 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Ball State vs Bowling Green | +12.5L13–38 | 54.5 | L13–38 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Ball State at Ohio | +17.5L21–42 | 51.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
Kent State 2024 Schedule
Kent State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Kent State at Pittsburgh | +23.5L24–55 | 55.5 | L24–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Kent State vs St. Francis (PA) | -17.5L17–23 | 49.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Kent State at Tennessee | +49.5L0–71 | 61.5 | L0–71 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Kent State at Penn State | +49.0L0–56 | 58.0 | L0–56 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Kent State vs Eastern Michigan | +14.0L33–52 | 46.0 | L33–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Kent State vs Ball State | +3.0L35–37 | 58.0 | L35–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Kent State at Bowling Green | +24.0L6–27 | 54.5 | L6–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Kent State at Western Michigan | +19.0L21–52 | 61.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Kent State vs Ohio | +20.5L0–41 | 53.5 | L0–41 | U | N |
| Wed 11/13 | Kent State at Miami (OH) | +31.0L7–34 | 47.5 | L7–34 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/19 | Kent State vs Akron | +10.5L17–38 | 49.0 | L17–38 | O | N |
| Tue 11/26 | Kent State at Buffalo | +23.5L7–43 | 50.5 | L7–43 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ball State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ball State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ball State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ball State Edge
Ball State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ball State Edge
Ball State +16.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ball State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Jared Elliott
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jeff Knowles
Yr 1
#1
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–11 (8%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mark Carney
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Duggan
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

