Bowling Green at Ball State Week 13 College Football Matchup Bowling Green at Ball State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Scheumann Stadium Muncie, IN · Turf · 22,500 cap
Bowling Green✈ 123 miSame TZ
38 13
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Bowling Green
36
Ball State
20
P&R Line Bowling Green -16.5
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Bowling Green -12.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Ball State, while Game Control favors Bowling Green. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Ball State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Bowling Green wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -12.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Bowling Green · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Bowling Green 2024 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Bowling Green vs Fordham-15.5W41–1760.5W41–17UY
Sat 9/7Bowling Green at Penn State+35.5L27–3451.5L27–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Bowling Green at Texas A&M+21.0L20–2650.5L20–26UY
Sat 9/28Bowling Green vs Old Dominion-11.0L27–3051.5L27–30ON
Sat 10/5Bowling Green at Akron-17.0W27–2048.5W27–20UN
Sat 10/12Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois-3.0L7–1746.5L7–17UN
Sat 10/19Bowling Green vs Kent State-24.0W27–654.5W27–6UN
Sat 10/26Bowling Green at Toledo+1.5W41–2647.5W41–26OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Bowling Green at Central Michigan-14.5W23–1347.5W23–13UN
Tue 11/12Bowling Green vs Western Michigan-9.5W31–1357.5W31–13UY
Sat 11/23Bowling Green at Ball State-12.5W38–1354.5W38–13UY
Fri 11/29Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)-3.0L12–2837.5L12–28ON
Thu 12/26Bowling Green vs Arkansas State-10.5L31–3854.5L31–38ON
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/7Ball State vs Missouri State-2.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 9/14Ball State at Miami+36.5L0–6255.5L0–62ON
Sat 9/21Ball State at Central Michigan+6.5L34–3751.0L34–37OY
Sat 9/28Ball State at James Madison+22.0L7–6356.5L7–63ON
Sat 10/5Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.0L42–4557.5L42–45OY
Sat 10/12Ball State at Kent State-3.0W37–3558.0W37–35ON
Sat 10/19Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.5L14–2457.5L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.5W25–2347.5W25–23OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.5L21–2748.5L21–27UY
Tue 11/12Ball State at Buffalo+3.5L48–5155.5L48–51OY
Sat 11/23Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.5L13–3854.5L13–38UN
Fri 11/29Ball State at Ohio+17.5L21–4251.5L21–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Bowling Green PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Bowling Green
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Bowling Green #53
+0.533
Ball State #98
+0.268
Bowling Green Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #53
+0.720
Ball State #98
+0.301
Bowling Green Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #73
0.157
Ball State #116
0.134
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Bowling Green Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #77
+8.653
Ball State #65
+7.407
Bowling Green Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #68
+0.890
Ball State #78
+0.797
Bowling Green Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #68
70.8
Ball State #41
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ball State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Bowling Green Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Bowling Green
-9.7
Ball State
-21.6
Offense Rating
Bowling Green
10.9
Ball State
5.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Bowling Green
20.7
Ball State
27.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Ball State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Bowling Green #92
0.67
Ball State #111
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #43
0.89
Ball State #132
2.22
Ball State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Bowling Green Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Bowling Green #1
56.7
Ball State #1
37.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #43
25.6
Ball State #104
41.0
Bowling Green +19.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
20–35 (36%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Greg Nosal Yr 2 #1
DC Sammy Lawanson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Jared Elliott Yr 2 #1
DC Jeff Knowles Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself