Ball State at James Madison Week 5 College Football Matchup Ball State at James Madison Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Bridgeforth Stadium Harrisonburg, VA · Turf · 24,878 cap
Ball State✈ 370 miSame TZ
7 63
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ball State
16
JMU -22
James Madison
42
P&R Line James Madison -25.5
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 90 High
Vegas James Madison -22 · O/U 56.5
Matchup Prediction
James Madison has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor James Madison entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
James Madison wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
James Madison wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
James Madison -22
O/U 56.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Ball State 3rd straight Road Game
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/7Ball State vs Missouri State-2.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 9/14Ball State at Miami+36.5L0–6255.5L0–62ON
Sat 9/21Ball State at Central Michigan+6.5L34–3751.0L34–37OY
Sat 9/28Ball State at James Madison+22.0L7–6356.5L7–63ON
Sat 10/5Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.0L42–4557.5L42–45OY
Sat 10/12Ball State at Kent State-3.0W37–3558.0W37–35ON
Sat 10/19Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.5L14–2457.5L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.5W25–2347.5W25–23OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.5L21–2748.5L21–27UY
Tue 11/12Ball State at Buffalo+3.5L48–5155.5L48–51OY
Sat 11/23Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.5L13–3854.5L13–38UN
Fri 11/29Ball State at Ohio+17.5L21–4251.5L21–42ON
James Madison 2024 Schedule
James Madison's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31James Madison at Charlotte-6.5W30–747.5W30–7UY
Sat 9/7James Madison vs Gardner-Webb-35.5W13–650.5W13–6UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21James Madison at North Carolina+10.0W70–5048.0W70–50OY
Sat 9/28James Madison vs Ball State-22.0W63–756.5W63–7OY
Sat 10/5James Madison at UL Monroe-16.5L19–2148.5L19–21UN
Thu 10/10James Madison vs Coastal Carolina-7.0W39–759.0W39–7UY
Sat 10/19James Madison at Georgia Southern-9.5L14–2858.5L14–28UN
Sat 10/26James Madison vs Southern Miss-24.0W32–1554.0W32–15UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9James Madison vs Georgia State-14.5W38–753.5W38–7UY
Sat 11/16James Madison at Old Dominion-1.5W35–3251.0W35–32OY
Sat 11/23James Madison at App State-7.5L20–3457.5L20–34UN
Sat 11/30James Madison vs Marshall-2.5L33–3552.5L33–35ON
Wed 12/18James Madison vs Western Kentucky-7.5W27–1750.5W27–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
James Madison PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ball State #98
+0.165
James Madison #88
+0.477
James Madison Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #98
+0.261
James Madison #99
+0.620
James Madison Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ball State #116
0.134
James Madison #8
0.204
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #65
+7.583
James Madison #66
+8.743
James Madison Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ball State #78
+0.760
James Madison #61
+0.900
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ball State #41
69.7
James Madison #10
67.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
James Madison Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ball State
-21.7
James Madison
-1.2
Offense Rating
Ball State
5.9
James Madison
13.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ball State
27.6
James Madison
15.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? James Madison Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ball State #111
0.50
James Madison #33
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #132
4.50
James Madison #14
0.50
James Madison +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? James Madison Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ball State #1
30.9
James Madison #1
62.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #104
44.8
James Madison #10
15.0
James Madison +31.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
James Madison
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
James Madison
90.1 — 4.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
James Madison won by 56
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on James Madison with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Jared Elliott Yr 2 #1
DC Jeff Knowles Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
James Madison
Bob Chesney #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dean Kennedy Yr 1 #1
DC Lyle Hemphill Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself