Ohio at Miami (OH) Week 15 College Football Matchup Ohio at Miami (OH) Matchup - Week 15
Sat, Dec 7 2024 · Week 15 · Neutral Site · 🏟 Ford Field Detroit, MI · Turf · 65,000 cap
Ohio✈ 214 miSame TZ Miami (OH)✈ 213 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
38 3
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ohio
21
OHIO +2.5
Miami (OH)
23
P&R Line Miami (OH) -2
P&R Total O/U 44.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -2.5 · O/U 43.5
Matchup Prediction
Ohio has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Ohio entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ohio wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Ohio wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -2.5
O/U 43.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio 2024 Schedule
Ohio's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Ohio at Syracuse+17.5L22–3847.5L22–38OY
Sat 9/7Ohio vs South Alabama+1.5W27–2055.5W27–20UY
Sat 9/14Ohio vs Morgan State-24.5W21–645.5W21–6UN
Sat 9/21Ohio at Kentucky+19.0L6–4142.0L6–41ON
Sat 9/28Ohio vs Akron-8.5W30–1046.0W30–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Ohio at Central Michigan-3.0W27–2550.5W27–25ON
Sat 10/19Ohio at Miami (OH)+3.5L20–3043.5L20–30ON
Sat 10/26Ohio vs Buffalo-4.0W47–1646.5W47–16OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6Ohio at Kent State-20.5W41–053.5W41–0UY
Wed 11/13Ohio vs Eastern Michigan-10.5W35–1051.5W35–10UY
Wed 11/20Ohio at Toledo+1.5W24–747.0W24–7UY
Fri 11/29Ohio vs Ball State-17.5W42–2151.5W42–21OY
Sat 12/7Ohio vs Miami (OH)+2.5W38–343.5W38–3UY
Fri 12/20Ohio vs Jacksonville State-6.5W30–2757.5W30–27UN
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami (OH) vs Northwestern+4.0L6–1343.0L6–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati+3.5L16–2747.5L16–27UN
Sat 9/21Miami (OH) at Notre Dame+27.5L3–2844.0L3–28UY
Sat 9/28Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts-15.5W23–2044.5W23–20UN
Sat 10/5Miami (OH) at Toledo+4.5L20–3044.0L20–30ON
Sat 10/12Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-3.0W38–1445.5W38–14OY
Sat 10/19Miami (OH) vs Ohio-3.5W30–2043.5W30–20OY
Sat 10/26Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan-10.5W46–748.5W46–7OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Miami (OH) at Ball State-12.5W27–2148.5W27–21UN
Wed 11/13Miami (OH) vs Kent State-31.0W34–747.5W34–7UN
Tue 11/19Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois-1.5W20–943.0W20–9UY
Fri 11/29Miami (OH) at Bowling Green+3.0W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 12/7Miami (OH) vs Ohio-2.5L3–3843.5L3–38UN
Sat 12/28Miami (OH) vs Colorado State-1.0W43–1742.5W43–17OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Ohio PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ohio #40
+0.359
Miami (OH) #95
+0.243
Ohio Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ohio #80
+0.347
Miami (OH) #87
+0.442
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ohio #14
0.197
Miami (OH) #35
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Ohio Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ohio #47
+7.055
Miami (OH) #108
+7.219
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ohio #30
+0.893
Miami (OH) #97
+0.777
Ohio Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ohio #94
72.1
Miami (OH) #1
60.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ohio
-10.3
Miami (OH)
0.7
Offense Rating
Ohio
7.5
Miami (OH)
14.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ohio
17.7
Miami (OH)
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Ohio Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ohio #26
1.18
Miami (OH) #68
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ohio #95
1.00
Miami (OH) #15
0.33
Ohio +0.18
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Ohio Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ohio #1
49.7
Miami (OH) #1
48.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ohio #27
32.3
Miami (OH) #55
32.6
Ohio +1.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Ohio, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
23–16 (59%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Brian Smith Yr 1 #1
DC John Hauser Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 2 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself