Cincinnati at Miami (OH) Week 3 College Football Matchup Cincinnati at Miami (OH) Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 14 2024 · Week 3 · 🏟 Yager Stadium Oxford, OH · Turf · 24,286 cap
27 16
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Cincinnati
23
Miami (OH)
24
P&R Line Miami (OH) -0.5
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Cincinnati -3.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Cincinnati has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Cincinnati entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Cincinnati wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Cincinnati wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Cincinnati -3.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Cincinnati · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Miami (OH) Coming off BYE
Cincinnati 2024 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Cincinnati vs Towson-33.5W38–2056.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/7Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh+2.5L27–2862.5L27–28UY
Sat 9/14Cincinnati at Miami (OH)-3.5W27–1647.5W27–16UY
Sat 9/21Cincinnati vs Houston-4.0W34–047.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/28Cincinnati at Texas Tech+3.0L41–4460.0L41–44OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Cincinnati at UCF+2.0W19–1358.0W19–13UY
Sat 10/19Cincinnati vs Arizona State-5.5W24–1451.0W24–14UY
Sat 10/26Cincinnati at Colorado+6.0L23–3457.0L23–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Cincinnati vs West Virginia-5.5L24–3154.5L24–31ON
Sat 11/16Cincinnati at Iowa State+7.0L17–3452.5L17–34UN
Sat 11/23Cincinnati at Kansas State+7.5L15–4154.5L15–41ON
Sat 11/30Cincinnati vs TCU+2.5L13–2058.5L13–20UN
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami (OH) vs Northwestern+4.0L6–1343.0L6–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati+3.5L16–2747.5L16–27UN
Sat 9/21Miami (OH) at Notre Dame+27.5L3–2844.0L3–28UY
Sat 9/28Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts-15.5W23–2044.5W23–20UN
Sat 10/5Miami (OH) at Toledo+4.5L20–3044.0L20–30ON
Sat 10/12Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-3.0W38–1445.5W38–14OY
Sat 10/19Miami (OH) vs Ohio-3.5W30–2043.5W30–20OY
Sat 10/26Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan-10.5W46–748.5W46–7OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Miami (OH) at Ball State-12.5W27–2148.5W27–21UN
Wed 11/13Miami (OH) vs Kent State-31.0W34–747.5W34–7UN
Tue 11/19Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois-1.5W20–943.0W20–9UY
Fri 11/29Miami (OH) at Bowling Green+3.0W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 12/7Miami (OH) vs Ohio-2.5L3–3843.5L3–38UN
Sat 12/28Miami (OH) vs Colorado State-1.0W43–1742.5W43–17OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Cincinnati PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Cincinnati
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Cincinnati #59
+0.327
Miami (OH) #95
+0.325
Cincinnati Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #63
+0.377
Miami (OH) #87
+0.457
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #67
0.162
Miami (OH) #35
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #118
+6.237
Miami (OH) #108
+6.936
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Cincinnati #43
+0.882
Miami (OH) #97
+0.830
Cincinnati Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Cincinnati #124
73.6
Miami (OH) #1
60.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Cincinnati
-1.3
Miami (OH)
0.7
Offense Rating
Cincinnati
13.7
Miami (OH)
14.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Cincinnati
15.0
Miami (OH)
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Cincinnati Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Cincinnati #38
2.00
Miami (OH) #68
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Cincinnati #73
3.00
Miami (OH) #15
1.00
Cincinnati +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Cincinnati Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Cincinnati #1
81.6
Miami (OH) #1
14.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Cincinnati #66
7.2
Miami (OH) #55
55.4
Cincinnati +67.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Cincinnati with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brad Glenn Yr 2 #1
DC Nate Fuqua Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 2 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself