Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan Week 7 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Rynearson Stadium Ypsilanti, MI · Turf · 30,200 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 197 miSame TZ
38 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
30
M-OH -3
Eastern Michigan
18
P&R Line Miami (OH) -11.5
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Miami (OH) -3 · O/U 45.5
Matchup Prediction
Eastern Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Eastern Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Eastern Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Eastern Michigan wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -3
O/U 45.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Eastern Michigan Coming off BYE 🚌 Miami (OH) 2nd straight Road Game
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami (OH) vs Northwestern+4.0L6–1343.0L6–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati+3.5L16–2747.5L16–27UN
Sat 9/21Miami (OH) at Notre Dame+27.5L3–2844.0L3–28UY
Sat 9/28Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts-15.5W23–2044.5W23–20UN
Sat 10/5Miami (OH) at Toledo+4.5L20–3044.0L20–30ON
Sat 10/12Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-3.0W38–1445.5W38–14OY
Sat 10/19Miami (OH) vs Ohio-3.5W30–2043.5W30–20OY
Sat 10/26Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan-10.5W46–748.5W46–7OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Miami (OH) at Ball State-12.5W27–2148.5W27–21UN
Wed 11/13Miami (OH) vs Kent State-31.0W34–747.5W34–7UN
Tue 11/19Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois-1.5W20–943.0W20–9UY
Fri 11/29Miami (OH) at Bowling Green+3.0W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 12/7Miami (OH) vs Ohio-2.5L3–3843.5L3–38UN
Sat 12/28Miami (OH) vs Colorado State-1.0W43–1742.5W43–17OY
Eastern Michigan 2024 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts+2.5W28–1449.0W28–14UY
Sat 9/7Eastern Michigan at Washington+25.0L9–3048.5L9–30UY
Sat 9/14Eastern Michigan vs Jacksonville State+2.5W37–3453.5W37–34OY
Sat 9/21Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)-25.5W36–045.5W36–0UY
Sat 9/28Eastern Michigan at Kent State-14.0W52–3346.0W52–33OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH)+3.0L14–3845.5L14–38ON
Sat 10/19Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan-3.5W38–3452.5W38–34OY
Sat 10/26Eastern Michigan at Akron-2.5L21–2550.5L21–25UN
Sat 11/2Eastern Michigan vs Toledo+10.0L28–2954.5L28–29OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/13Eastern Michigan at Ohio+10.5L10–3551.5L10–35UN
Wed 11/20Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo-1.0L20–3753.5L20–37ON
Sat 11/30Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan+6.5L18–2656.5L18–26UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #95
+0.337
Eastern Michigan #117
+0.207
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #87
+0.582
Eastern Michigan #105
+0.270
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #35
0.182
Eastern Michigan #24
0.187
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Eastern Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #108
+6.914
Eastern Michigan #105
+6.383
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #97
+0.857
Eastern Michigan #74
+0.858
Even
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #1
60.9
Eastern Michigan #68
70.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Eastern Michigan
-8.5
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Eastern Michigan
10.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Eastern Michigan
18.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #68
0.00
Eastern Michigan #67
1.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #15
0.80
Eastern Michigan #55
0.75
Eastern Michigan +1.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
17.8
Eastern Michigan #1
57.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #55
59.7
Eastern Michigan #92
24.1
Eastern Michigan +40.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Eastern Michigan with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 2 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
52–68 (43%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Mike Piatkowski Yr 1 #1
DC Ben Needham Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself