Miami (OH) at Bowling Green Week 14 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Bowling Green Matchup - Week 14
Fri, Nov 29 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium Bowling Green, OH · Turf · 24,000 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 141 miSame TZ
28 12
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
20
Bowling Green
21
P&R Line Bowling Green -1.5
P&R Total O/U 41
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Bowling Green -3 · O/U 37.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Miami (OH), while Game Control favors Bowling Green. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Bowling Green wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -3
O/U 37.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Bowling Green · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami (OH) vs Northwestern+4.0L6–1343.0L6–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati+3.5L16–2747.5L16–27UN
Sat 9/21Miami (OH) at Notre Dame+27.5L3–2844.0L3–28UY
Sat 9/28Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts-15.5W23–2044.5W23–20UN
Sat 10/5Miami (OH) at Toledo+4.5L20–3044.0L20–30ON
Sat 10/12Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-3.0W38–1445.5W38–14OY
Sat 10/19Miami (OH) vs Ohio-3.5W30–2043.5W30–20OY
Sat 10/26Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan-10.5W46–748.5W46–7OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Miami (OH) at Ball State-12.5W27–2148.5W27–21UN
Wed 11/13Miami (OH) vs Kent State-31.0W34–747.5W34–7UN
Tue 11/19Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois-1.5W20–943.0W20–9UY
Fri 11/29Miami (OH) at Bowling Green+3.0W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 12/7Miami (OH) vs Ohio-2.5L3–3843.5L3–38UN
Sat 12/28Miami (OH) vs Colorado State-1.0W43–1742.5W43–17OY
Bowling Green 2024 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Bowling Green vs Fordham-15.5W41–1760.5W41–17UY
Sat 9/7Bowling Green at Penn State+35.5L27–3451.5L27–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Bowling Green at Texas A&M+21.0L20–2650.5L20–26UY
Sat 9/28Bowling Green vs Old Dominion-11.0L27–3051.5L27–30ON
Sat 10/5Bowling Green at Akron-17.0W27–2048.5W27–20UN
Sat 10/12Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois-3.0L7–1746.5L7–17UN
Sat 10/19Bowling Green vs Kent State-24.0W27–654.5W27–6UN
Sat 10/26Bowling Green at Toledo+1.5W41–2647.5W41–26OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Bowling Green at Central Michigan-14.5W23–1347.5W23–13UN
Tue 11/12Bowling Green vs Western Michigan-9.5W31–1357.5W31–13UY
Sat 11/23Bowling Green at Ball State-12.5W38–1354.5W38–13UY
Fri 11/29Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)-3.0L12–2837.5L12–28ON
Thu 12/26Bowling Green vs Arkansas State-10.5L31–3854.5L31–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Bowling Green PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Bowling Green
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #95
+0.275
Bowling Green #53
+0.335
Bowling Green Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #87
+0.335
Bowling Green #53
+0.393
Bowling Green Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #35
0.182
Bowling Green #73
0.157
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #108
+6.897
Bowling Green #77
+6.749
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #97
+0.783
Bowling Green #68
+0.861
Bowling Green Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #1
60.9
Bowling Green #68
70.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Bowling Green
-9.7
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Bowling Green
10.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Bowling Green
20.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #68
1.09
Bowling Green #92
0.80
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #15
0.36
Bowling Green #43
0.80
Miami (OH) +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Bowling Green Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
45.1
Bowling Green #1
59.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #55
34.9
Bowling Green #43
24.0
Bowling Green +14.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 2 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
20–35 (36%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Greg Nosal Yr 2 #1
DC Sammy Lawanson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself