Central Michigan at Miami (OH) Week 9 College Football Matchup Central Michigan at Miami (OH) Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 26 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 Yager Stadium Oxford, OH · Turf · 24,286 cap
Central Michigan✈ 280 miSame TZ
7 46
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Central Michigan
16
M-OH -10.5
Miami (OH)
32
P&R Line Miami (OH) -16.5
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -10.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Central Michigan, while Game Control favors Miami (OH). Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -10.5
O/U 48.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Miami (OH) · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Miami (OH) 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Central Michigan 2nd straight Road Game
Central Michigan 2024 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Central Michigan vs Central Connecticut-33.5W66–1054.5W66–10OY
Sat 9/7Central Michigan vs Florida International-3.5L16–5251.5L16–52ON
Sat 9/14Central Michigan at Illinois+21.5L9–3049.5L9–30UY
Sat 9/21Central Michigan vs Ball State-6.5W37–3451.0W37–34ON
Sat 9/28Central Michigan vs San Diego State-2.5W22–2147.5W22–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Central Michigan vs Ohio+3.0L25–2750.5L25–27OY
Sat 10/19Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan+3.5L34–3852.5L34–38ON
Sat 10/26Central Michigan at Miami (OH)+10.5L7–4648.5L7–46ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Central Michigan vs Bowling Green+14.5L13–2347.5L13–23UY
Tue 11/12Central Michigan at Toledo+15.0L10–3752.5L10–37UN
Tue 11/19Central Michigan vs Western Michigan+6.0W16–1456.0W16–14UY
Sat 11/30Central Michigan at Northern Illinois+16.5L16–2441.5L16–24UY
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami (OH) vs Northwestern+4.0L6–1343.0L6–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati+3.5L16–2747.5L16–27UN
Sat 9/21Miami (OH) at Notre Dame+27.5L3–2844.0L3–28UY
Sat 9/28Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts-15.5W23–2044.5W23–20UN
Sat 10/5Miami (OH) at Toledo+4.5L20–3044.0L20–30ON
Sat 10/12Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-3.0W38–1445.5W38–14OY
Sat 10/19Miami (OH) vs Ohio-3.5W30–2043.5W30–20OY
Sat 10/26Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan-10.5W46–748.5W46–7OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Miami (OH) at Ball State-12.5W27–2148.5W27–21UN
Wed 11/13Miami (OH) vs Kent State-31.0W34–747.5W34–7UN
Tue 11/19Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois-1.5W20–943.0W20–9UY
Fri 11/29Miami (OH) at Bowling Green+3.0W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 12/7Miami (OH) vs Ohio-2.5L3–3843.5L3–38UN
Sat 12/28Miami (OH) vs Colorado State-1.0W43–1742.5W43–17OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Central Michigan #96
+0.266
Miami (OH) #95
+0.359
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Central Michigan #129
+0.157
Miami (OH) #87
+0.504
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Central Michigan #45
0.176
Miami (OH) #35
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Central Michigan #80
+6.732
Miami (OH) #108
+7.029
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Central Michigan #115
+0.822
Miami (OH) #97
+0.807
Central Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Central Michigan #113
72.9
Miami (OH) #1
60.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Central Michigan
-4.9
Miami (OH)
0.7
Offense Rating
Central Michigan
15.1
Miami (OH)
14.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Central Michigan
20.0
Miami (OH)
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Central Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Central Michigan #90
1.00
Miami (OH) #68
0.43
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Central Michigan #102
1.67
Miami (OH) #15
0.57
Central Michigan +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Central Michigan #1
30.1
Miami (OH) #1
35.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Central Michigan #126
55.7
Miami (OH) #55
44.7
Miami (OH) +5.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami (OH)
6 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
70.3 — 10.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 39
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
29–28 (51%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Jim McElwain Yr 1 #1
DC Robb Akey Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 2 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself