Ball State at Central Michigan Week 4 College Football Matchup Ball State at Central Michigan Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Kelly/Shorts Stadium Mount Pleasant, MI · Turf · 32,885 cap
Ball State✈ 234 miSame TZ
34 37
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ball State
23
CMU -6.5
Central Michigan
32
P&R Line Central Michigan -9
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Central Michigan -6.5 · O/U 51.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Central Michigan -6.5
O/U 51.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Central Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Ball State 2nd straight Road Game
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/7Ball State vs Missouri State-2.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 9/14Ball State at Miami+36.5L0–6255.5L0–62ON
Sat 9/21Ball State at Central Michigan+6.5L34–3751.0L34–37OY
Sat 9/28Ball State at James Madison+22.0L7–6356.5L7–63ON
Sat 10/5Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.0L42–4557.5L42–45OY
Sat 10/12Ball State at Kent State-3.0W37–3558.0W37–35ON
Sat 10/19Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.5L14–2457.5L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.5W25–2347.5W25–23OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.5L21–2748.5L21–27UY
Tue 11/12Ball State at Buffalo+3.5L48–5155.5L48–51OY
Sat 11/23Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.5L13–3854.5L13–38UN
Fri 11/29Ball State at Ohio+17.5L21–4251.5L21–42ON
Central Michigan 2024 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Central Michigan vs Central Connecticut-33.5W66–1054.5W66–10OY
Sat 9/7Central Michigan vs Florida International-3.5L16–5251.5L16–52ON
Sat 9/14Central Michigan at Illinois+21.5L9–3049.5L9–30UY
Sat 9/21Central Michigan vs Ball State-6.5W37–3451.0W37–34ON
Sat 9/28Central Michigan vs San Diego State-2.5W22–2147.5W22–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Central Michigan vs Ohio+3.0L25–2750.5L25–27OY
Sat 10/19Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan+3.5L34–3852.5L34–38ON
Sat 10/26Central Michigan at Miami (OH)+10.5L7–4648.5L7–46ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Central Michigan vs Bowling Green+14.5L13–2347.5L13–23UY
Tue 11/12Central Michigan at Toledo+15.0L10–3752.5L10–37UN
Tue 11/19Central Michigan vs Western Michigan+6.0W16–1456.0W16–14UY
Sat 11/30Central Michigan at Northern Illinois+16.5L16–2441.5L16–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Central Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Central Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ball State #98
+0.352
Central Michigan #96
+0.464
Central Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #98
+0.470
Central Michigan #129
+0.484
Central Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ball State #116
0.134
Central Michigan #45
0.176
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Central Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #65
+7.538
Central Michigan #80
+8.635
Central Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ball State #78
+0.820
Central Michigan #115
+0.851
Central Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ball State #41
69.7
Central Michigan #113
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ball State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Central Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ball State
-21.7
Central Michigan
-4.9
Offense Rating
Ball State
5.9
Central Michigan
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ball State
27.6
Central Michigan
20.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Ball State #111
0.00
Central Michigan #90
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #132
7.00
Central Michigan #102
1.50
Ball State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Central Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ball State #1
24.4
Central Michigan #1
34.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #104
52.1
Central Michigan #126
54.7
Central Michigan +10.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Central Michigan
2 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Ball State
30.4 — 44.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Central Michigan won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Central Michigan. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Jared Elliott Yr 2 #1
DC Jeff Knowles Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
29–28 (51%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Jim McElwain Yr 1 #1
DC Robb Akey Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself