Sat, Sep 21 2024
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Mount Pleasant, MI
·
Turf
·
32,885 cap
Ball State✈ 234 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Central Michigan -6.5
O/U 51.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Central Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/7 | Ball State vs Missouri State | -2.5W42–34 | 50.5 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Ball State at Miami | +36.5L0–62 | 55.5 | L0–62 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Ball State at Central Michigan | +6.5L34–37 | 51.0 | L34–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Ball State at James Madison | +22.0L7–63 | 56.5 | L7–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Ball State vs Western Michigan | +10.0L42–45 | 57.5 | L42–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Ball State at Kent State | -3.0W37–35 | 58.0 | W37–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Ball State at Vanderbilt | +27.5L14–24 | 57.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Ball State vs Northern Illinois | +13.5W25–23 | 47.5 | W25–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Ball State vs Miami (OH) | +12.5L21–27 | 48.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/12 | Ball State at Buffalo | +3.5L48–51 | 55.5 | L48–51 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Ball State vs Bowling Green | +12.5L13–38 | 54.5 | L13–38 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Ball State at Ohio | +17.5L21–42 | 51.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
Central Michigan 2024 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Central Michigan vs Central Connecticut | -33.5W66–10 | 54.5 | W66–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Central Michigan vs Florida International | -3.5L16–52 | 51.5 | L16–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Central Michigan at Illinois | +21.5L9–30 | 49.5 | L9–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Central Michigan vs Ball State | -6.5W37–34 | 51.0 | W37–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Central Michigan vs San Diego State | -2.5W22–21 | 47.5 | W22–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Central Michigan vs Ohio | +3.0L25–27 | 50.5 | L25–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan | +3.5L34–38 | 52.5 | L34–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Central Michigan at Miami (OH) | +10.5L7–46 | 48.5 | L7–46 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Central Michigan vs Bowling Green | +14.5L13–23 | 47.5 | L13–23 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/12 | Central Michigan at Toledo | +15.0L10–37 | 52.5 | L10–37 | U | N |
| Tue 11/19 | Central Michigan vs Western Michigan | +6.0W16–14 | 56.0 | W16–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Central Michigan at Northern Illinois | +16.5L16–24 | 41.5 | L16–24 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Central Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ball State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Central Michigan Edge
Central Michigan +10.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Central Michigan
2 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Ball State
30.4 — 44.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Central Michigan won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Central Michigan. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Jared Elliott
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jeff Knowles
Yr 1
#1
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
29–28 (51%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Jim McElwain
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robb Akey
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

