Miami (OH) at Colorado State Week 1 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Colorado State Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Dec 28 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Arizona Stadium Tucson, AZ · Turf · 56,029 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 1,545 mi-3 hr TZ Colorado State✈ 661 mi-1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
43 17
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
24
M-OH -1
Colorado State
20
P&R Line Miami (OH) -4
P&R Total O/U 44.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -1 · O/U 42.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Miami (OH), while Game Control favors Colorado State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Colorado State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -1
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Miami (OH) · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Colorado State 2nd straight Home Game
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami (OH) vs Northwestern+4.0L6–1343.0L6–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati+3.5L16–2747.5L16–27UN
Sat 9/21Miami (OH) at Notre Dame+27.5L3–2844.0L3–28UY
Sat 9/28Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts-15.5W23–2044.5W23–20UN
Sat 10/5Miami (OH) at Toledo+4.5L20–3044.0L20–30ON
Sat 10/12Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-3.0W38–1445.5W38–14OY
Sat 10/19Miami (OH) vs Ohio-3.5W30–2043.5W30–20OY
Sat 10/26Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan-10.5W46–748.5W46–7OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Miami (OH) at Ball State-12.5W27–2148.5W27–21UN
Wed 11/13Miami (OH) vs Kent State-31.0W34–747.5W34–7UN
Tue 11/19Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois-1.5W20–943.0W20–9UY
Fri 11/29Miami (OH) at Bowling Green+3.0W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 12/7Miami (OH) vs Ohio-2.5L3–3843.5L3–38UN
Sat 12/28Miami (OH) vs Colorado State-1.0W43–1742.5W43–17OY
Colorado State 2024 Schedule
Colorado State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Colorado State at Texas+35.5L0–5259.0L0–52UN
Sat 9/7Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-31.0W38–1752.5W38–17ON
Sat 9/14Colorado State vs Colorado+7.5L9–2858.5L9–28UN
Sat 9/21Colorado State vs UTEP-8.5W27–1749.0W27–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Colorado State at Oregon State+10.0L31–3947.0L31–39OY
Sat 10/12Colorado State vs San José State-2.5W31–2455.5W31–24UY
Sat 10/19Colorado State at Air Force-6.0W21–1343.5W21–13UY
Sat 10/26Colorado State vs New Mexico-3.5W17–662.0W17–6UY
Sat 11/2Colorado State at Nevada-2.0W38–2145.5W38–21OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Colorado State vs Wyoming-8.5W24–1047.5W24–10UY
Sat 11/23Colorado State at Fresno State+3.5L22–2843.5L22–28ON
Fri 11/29Colorado State vs Utah State-5.5W42–3756.5W42–37ON
Sat 12/28Colorado State vs Miami (OH)+1.0L17–4342.5L17–43ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #95
+0.305
Colorado State #90
+0.276
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #87
+0.440
Colorado State #43
+0.426
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #35
0.182
Colorado State #59
0.166
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #108
+7.429
Colorado State #98
+6.470
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #97
+0.832
Colorado State #76
+0.857
Colorado State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #1
60.9
Colorado State #98
72.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Colorado State
-9.4
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Colorado State
9.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Colorado State
19.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #68
0.92
Colorado State #115
0.82
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #15
0.62
Colorado State #126
1.00
Miami (OH) +0.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Colorado State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
44.9
Colorado State #1
55.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #55
36.2
Colorado State #47
30.4
Colorado State +10.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 2 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Colorado State
Jay Norvell #1
8–16 (33%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Matt Mumme Yr 3 #1
DC Freddie Banks Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself