Miami (OH) at Notre Dame Week 4 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Notre Dame Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Notre Dame Stadium Notre Dame, IN · Turf · 80,795 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 169 miSame TZ
3 28
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
9
ND -27.5
Notre Dame
37
P&R Line Notre Dame -28
P&R Total O/U 45.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Notre Dame -27.5 · O/U 44.0
Matchup Prediction
Notre Dame has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Notre Dame entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Notre Dame wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Notre Dame wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Notre Dame -27.5
O/U 44.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Notre Dame · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2024 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami (OH) vs Northwestern+4.0L6–1343.0L6–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati+3.5L16–2747.5L16–27UN
Sat 9/21Miami (OH) at Notre Dame+27.5L3–2844.0L3–28UY
Sat 9/28Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts-15.5W23–2044.5W23–20UN
Sat 10/5Miami (OH) at Toledo+4.5L20–3044.0L20–30ON
Sat 10/12Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-3.0W38–1445.5W38–14OY
Sat 10/19Miami (OH) vs Ohio-3.5W30–2043.5W30–20OY
Sat 10/26Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan-10.5W46–748.5W46–7OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Miami (OH) at Ball State-12.5W27–2148.5W27–21UN
Wed 11/13Miami (OH) vs Kent State-31.0W34–747.5W34–7UN
Tue 11/19Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois-1.5W20–943.0W20–9UY
Fri 11/29Miami (OH) at Bowling Green+3.0W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 12/7Miami (OH) vs Ohio-2.5L3–3843.5L3–38UN
Sat 12/28Miami (OH) vs Colorado State-1.0W43–1742.5W43–17OY
Notre Dame 2024 Schedule
Notre Dame's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Notre Dame at Texas A&M+3.0W23–1347.0W23–13UY
Sat 9/7Notre Dame vs Northern Illinois-28.5L14–1646.5L14–16UN
Sat 9/14Notre Dame at Purdue-11.5W66–745.5W66–7OY
Sat 9/21Notre Dame vs Miami (OH)-27.5W28–344.0W28–3UN
Sat 9/28Notre Dame vs Louisville-6.5W31–2445.0W31–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Notre Dame vs Stanford-22.5W49–745.5W49–7OY
Sat 10/19Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech-14.0W31–1349.5W31–13UY
Sat 10/26Notre Dame vs Navy-14.0W51–1450.5W51–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Notre Dame vs Florida State-25.5W52–344.5W52–3OY
Sat 11/16Notre Dame vs Virginia-20.5W35–1451.0W35–14UY
Sat 11/23Notre Dame vs Army-14.5W49–1444.5W49–14OY
Sat 11/30Notre Dame at USC-6.5W49–3552.5W49–35OY
Fri 12/20Notre Dame vs Indiana-7.0W27–1750.0W27–17UY
Thu 1/2Notre Dame vs Georgia-1.5W23–1046.5W23–10UY
Thu 1/9Notre Dame vs Penn State+1.5W27–2445.5W27–24OY
Mon 1/20Notre Dame vs Ohio State+8.5L23–3445.5L23–34ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Notre Dame PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Notre Dame
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH) #95
+0.124
Notre Dame #8
+0.445
Notre Dame Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #87
+0.073
Notre Dame #50
+0.402
Notre Dame Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #35
0.182
Notre Dame #25
0.186
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Notre Dame Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH) #108
+6.183
Notre Dame #5
+7.714
Notre Dame Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #97
+0.771
Notre Dame #22
+0.905
Notre Dame Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH) #1
60.9
Notre Dame #8
66.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Miami (OH) Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Notre Dame Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Notre Dame
28.3
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Notre Dame
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Notre Dame
0.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Notre Dame Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #68
0.00
Notre Dame #40
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #15
0.50
Notre Dame #45
0.67
Notre Dame +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Notre Dame Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
12.0
Notre Dame #1
49.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #55
64.2
Notre Dame #8
30.4
Notre Dame +37.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Notre Dame
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Notre Dame
52.8 — 28.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Notre Dame won by 25
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Notre Dame with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
56–62 (48%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Patrick Welsh Yr 2 #1
DC Bill Brechin Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman #1
19–8 (70%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Mike Denbrock Yr 1 #1
DC Al Golden Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself