Sat, Oct 19 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Vanderbilt Stadium
Nashville, TN
·
Turf
·
40,350 cap
Ball State✈ 291 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Vanderbilt
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Vanderbilt entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Vanderbilt wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Vanderbilt wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Vanderbilt -27.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Vanderbilt
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/7 | Ball State vs Missouri State | -2.5W42–34 | 50.5 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Ball State at Miami | +36.5L0–62 | 55.5 | L0–62 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Ball State at Central Michigan | +6.5L34–37 | 51.0 | L34–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Ball State at James Madison | +22.0L7–63 | 56.5 | L7–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Ball State vs Western Michigan | +10.0L42–45 | 57.5 | L42–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Ball State at Kent State | -3.0W37–35 | 58.0 | W37–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Ball State at Vanderbilt | +27.5L14–24 | 57.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Ball State vs Northern Illinois | +13.5W25–23 | 47.5 | W25–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Ball State vs Miami (OH) | +12.5L21–27 | 48.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/12 | Ball State at Buffalo | +3.5L48–51 | 55.5 | L48–51 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Ball State vs Bowling Green | +12.5L13–38 | 54.5 | L13–38 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Ball State at Ohio | +17.5L21–42 | 51.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
Vanderbilt 2024 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech | +13.5W34–27 | 53.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State | -32.5W55–0 | 47.5 | W55–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Vanderbilt at Georgia State | -8.5L32–36 | 45.5 | L32–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Vanderbilt at Missouri | +17.5L27–30 | 52.0 | L27–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Vanderbilt vs Alabama | +23.5W40–35 | 53.5 | W40–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Vanderbilt at Kentucky | +12.5W20–13 | 44.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Vanderbilt vs Ball State | -27.5W24–14 | 57.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Vanderbilt vs Texas | +17.0L24–27 | 50.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Vanderbilt at Auburn | +7.5W17–7 | 48.0 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Vanderbilt vs South Carolina | +6.0L7–28 | 44.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Vanderbilt at LSU | +10.0L17–24 | 53.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Vanderbilt vs Tennessee | +9.5L23–36 | 45.5 | L23–36 | O | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech | +3.0W35–27 | 49.0 | W35–27 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Vanderbilt
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Vanderbilt Edge
Vanderbilt +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Vanderbilt Edge
Vanderbilt +21.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Vanderbilt
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Vanderbilt
42.5 — 28.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Vanderbilt won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Vanderbilt with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Jared Elliott
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jeff Knowles
Yr 1
#1
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
9–27 (25%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Tim Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clark Lea
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

