Ball State at Vanderbilt Week 8 College Football Matchup Ball State at Vanderbilt Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Vanderbilt Stadium Nashville, TN · Turf · 40,350 cap
Ball State✈ 291 mi-1 hr TZ
14 24
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Ball State
15
VAN -27.5
Vanderbilt
43
P&R Line Vanderbilt -28
P&R Total O/U 58.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Vanderbilt -27.5 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
Vanderbilt has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Vanderbilt entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Vanderbilt wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Vanderbilt wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Vanderbilt -27.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Vanderbilt · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Ball State 2nd straight Road Game
Ball State 2024 Schedule
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/7Ball State vs Missouri State-2.5W42–3450.5W42–34OY
Sat 9/14Ball State at Miami+36.5L0–6255.5L0–62ON
Sat 9/21Ball State at Central Michigan+6.5L34–3751.0L34–37OY
Sat 9/28Ball State at James Madison+22.0L7–6356.5L7–63ON
Sat 10/5Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.0L42–4557.5L42–45OY
Sat 10/12Ball State at Kent State-3.0W37–3558.0W37–35ON
Sat 10/19Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.5L14–2457.5L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.5W25–2347.5W25–23OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.5L21–2748.5L21–27UY
Tue 11/12Ball State at Buffalo+3.5L48–5155.5L48–51OY
Sat 11/23Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.5L13–3854.5L13–38UN
Fri 11/29Ball State at Ohio+17.5L21–4251.5L21–42ON
Vanderbilt 2024 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech+13.5W34–2753.5W34–27OY
Sat 9/7Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State-32.5W55–047.5W55–0OY
Sat 9/14Vanderbilt at Georgia State-8.5L32–3645.5L32–36ON
Sat 9/21Vanderbilt at Missouri+17.5L27–3052.0L27–30OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Vanderbilt vs Alabama+23.5W40–3553.5W40–35OY
Sat 10/12Vanderbilt at Kentucky+12.5W20–1344.5W20–13UY
Sat 10/19Vanderbilt vs Ball State-27.5W24–1457.5W24–14UN
Sat 10/26Vanderbilt vs Texas+17.0L24–2750.5L24–27OY
Sat 11/2Vanderbilt at Auburn+7.5W17–748.0W17–7UY
Sat 11/9Vanderbilt vs South Carolina+6.0L7–2844.5L7–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Vanderbilt at LSU+10.0L17–2453.0L17–24UY
Sat 11/30Vanderbilt vs Tennessee+9.5L23–3645.5L23–36ON
Fri 12/27Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech+3.0W35–2749.0W35–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Vanderbilt PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Vanderbilt
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Ball State #98
+0.385
Vanderbilt #76
+0.492
Vanderbilt Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #98
+0.555
Vanderbilt #33
+0.774
Vanderbilt Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Ball State #116
0.134
Vanderbilt #65
0.163
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Vanderbilt Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Ball State #65
+8.157
Vanderbilt #34
+9.066
Vanderbilt Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Ball State #78
+0.890
Vanderbilt #75
+0.887
Ball State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Ball State #41
69.7
Vanderbilt #22
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Vanderbilt Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Vanderbilt Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Ball State
-21.7
Vanderbilt
3.7
Offense Rating
Ball State
5.9
Vanderbilt
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Ball State
27.6
Vanderbilt
12.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Vanderbilt Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Ball State #111
1.00
Vanderbilt #48
1.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #132
3.40
Vanderbilt #39
0.80
Vanderbilt +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Vanderbilt Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Ball State #1
34.5
Vanderbilt #1
56.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Ball State #104
47.5
Vanderbilt #51
22.1
Vanderbilt +21.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Vanderbilt
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Vanderbilt
42.5 — 28.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Vanderbilt won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Vanderbilt with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
37–56 (40%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Jared Elliott Yr 2 #1
DC Jeff Knowles Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
9–27 (25%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tim Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Clark Lea Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself