Kansas State at Houston Week 10 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Houston Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 2 2024 · Week 10 · 🏟 John O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 40,000 cap
Kansas State✈ 658 miSame TZ
19 24
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
32
KSU -12.5
Houston
14
P&R Line Kansas State -17.5
P&R Total O/U 45.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kansas State -12.5 · O/U 46.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -12.5
O/U 46.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Houston 2nd straight Home Game
Kansas State 2024 Schedule
Kansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kansas State vs UT Martin-36.5W41–656.5W41–6UN
Sat 9/7Kansas State at Tulane-8.5W34–2747.5W34–27ON
Fri 9/13Kansas State vs Arizona-7.0W31–758.0W31–7UY
Sat 9/21Kansas State at BYU-7.5L9–3849.5L9–38UN
Sat 9/28Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-6.0W42–2058.0W42–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kansas State at Colorado-3.5W31–2854.5W31–28ON
Sat 10/19Kansas State at West Virginia-2.5W45–1856.5W45–18OY
Sat 10/26Kansas State vs Kansas-10.0W29–2756.5W29–27UN
Sat 11/2Kansas State at Houston-12.5L19–2446.5L19–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Kansas State vs Arizona State-7.5L14–2451.5L14–24UN
Sat 11/23Kansas State vs Cincinnati-7.5W41–1554.5W41–15OY
Sat 11/30Kansas State at Iowa State+2.5L21–2951.5L21–29UN
Thu 12/26Kansas State vs Rutgers-7.5W44–4151.5W44–41ON
Houston 2024 Schedule
Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Houston vs UNLV-3.0L7–2756.0L7–27UN
Sat 9/7Houston at Oklahoma+27.5L12–1648.5L12–16UY
Sat 9/14Houston vs Rice-3.5W33–743.5W33–7UY
Sat 9/21Houston at Cincinnati+4.0L0–3447.5L0–34UN
Sat 9/28Houston vs Iowa State+16.0L0–2043.0L0–20UN
Fri 10/4Houston at TCU+16.5W30–1952.0W30–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Houston vs Kansas+4.5L14–4245.5L14–42ON
Sat 10/26Houston vs Utah+4.5W17–1436.0W17–14UY
Sat 11/2Houston vs Kansas State+12.5W24–1946.5W24–19UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Houston at Arizona+1.0L3–2746.5L3–27UN
Sat 11/23Houston vs Baylor+7.0L10–2051.0L10–20UN
Sat 11/30Houston at BYU+9.5L18–3039.5L18–30ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #17
+0.437
Houston #133
+0.106
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #36
+0.563
Houston #131
+0.260
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #50
0.172
Houston #46
0.175
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Houston Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #53
+7.592
Houston #134
+6.115
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #55
+0.836
Houston #129
+0.712
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #104
72.4
Houston #101
72.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Houston Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Houston Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Houston
8.3
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Houston
19.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Houston
11.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #21
1.29
Houston #122
0.13
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #27
0.57
Houston #36
0.88
Kansas State +1.16
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
55.4
Houston #1
28.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #49
25.6
Houston #125
56.4
Kansas State +26.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
28.8 — 48.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Houston won by 5
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
39–24 (62%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Conor Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Houston
Willie Fritz #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Kevin Barbay Yr 1 #1
DC Shiel Wood Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself