Oklahoma State at Kansas State Week 5 College Football Matchup Oklahoma State at Kansas State Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Oklahoma State✈ 214 miSame TZ
20 42
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Oklahoma State
21
KSU -6
Kansas State
38
P&R Line Kansas State -16.5
P&R Total O/U 58.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -6 · O/U 58.0
Matchup Prediction
Oklahoma State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Oklahoma State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Oklahoma State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Oklahoma State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -6
O/U 58.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oklahoma State 2024 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State-9.5W44–2054.0W44–20OY
Sat 9/7Oklahoma State vs Arkansas-10.5W39–3160.5W39–31ON
Sat 9/14Oklahoma State at Tulsa-17.5W45–1062.5W45–10UY
Sat 9/21Oklahoma State vs Utah+1.0L19–2253.5L19–22UN
Sat 9/28Oklahoma State at Kansas State+6.0L20–4258.0L20–42ON
Sat 10/5Oklahoma State vs West Virginia-2.5L14–3865.0L14–38UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/18Oklahoma State at BYU+8.5L35–3853.0L35–38OY
Sat 10/26Oklahoma State at Baylor+7.0L28–3864.5L28–38ON
Sat 11/2Oklahoma State vs Arizona State+5.0L21–4257.0L21–42ON
Sat 11/9Oklahoma State at TCU+10.5L13–3868.5L13–38UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech+5.0L48–5663.5L48–56ON
Fri 11/29Oklahoma State at Colorado+14.5L0–5266.5L0–52UN
Kansas State 2024 Schedule
Kansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kansas State vs UT Martin-36.5W41–656.5W41–6UN
Sat 9/7Kansas State at Tulane-8.5W34–2747.5W34–27ON
Fri 9/13Kansas State vs Arizona-7.0W31–758.0W31–7UY
Sat 9/21Kansas State at BYU-7.5L9–3849.5L9–38UN
Sat 9/28Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-6.0W42–2058.0W42–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kansas State at Colorado-3.5W31–2854.5W31–28ON
Sat 10/19Kansas State at West Virginia-2.5W45–1856.5W45–18OY
Sat 10/26Kansas State vs Kansas-10.0W29–2756.5W29–27UN
Sat 11/2Kansas State at Houston-12.5L19–2446.5L19–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Kansas State vs Arizona State-7.5L14–2451.5L14–24UN
Sat 11/23Kansas State vs Cincinnati-7.5W41–1554.5W41–15OY
Sat 11/30Kansas State at Iowa State+2.5L21–2951.5L21–29UN
Thu 12/26Kansas State vs Rutgers-7.5W44–4151.5W44–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Oklahoma State #52
+0.323
Kansas State #17
+0.637
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #30
+0.581
Kansas State #36
+0.705
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #89
0.146
Kansas State #50
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #42
+7.757
Kansas State #53
+8.005
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Oklahoma State #63
+0.791
Kansas State #55
+0.896
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Oklahoma State #113
72.9
Kansas State #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Oklahoma State
4.7
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Oklahoma State
19.7
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Oklahoma State
15.0
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Oklahoma State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Oklahoma State #94
2.00
Kansas State #21
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Oklahoma State #101
1.33
Kansas State #27
0.67
Oklahoma State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Oklahoma State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Oklahoma State #1
50.5
Kansas State #1
50.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Oklahoma State #124
34.3
Kansas State #49
32.4
Oklahoma State +0.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
68.8 — 10.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 22
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Oklahoma State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
166–79 (68%) · Yr 20 at school
OC Kasey Dunn Yr 3 #1
DC Bryan Nardo Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
39–24 (62%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Conor Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself