Sat, Sep 28 2024
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Manhattan, KS
·
Turf
·
50,000 cap
Oklahoma State✈ 214 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Oklahoma State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oklahoma State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Oklahoma State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Oklahoma State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -6
O/U 58.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oklahoma State 2024 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State | -9.5W44–20 | 54.0 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Oklahoma State vs Arkansas | -10.5W39–31 | 60.5 | W39–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Oklahoma State at Tulsa | -17.5W45–10 | 62.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Oklahoma State vs Utah | +1.0L19–22 | 53.5 | L19–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Oklahoma State at Kansas State | +6.0L20–42 | 58.0 | L20–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Oklahoma State vs West Virginia | -2.5L14–38 | 65.0 | L14–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/18 | Oklahoma State at BYU | +8.5L35–38 | 53.0 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Oklahoma State at Baylor | +7.0L28–38 | 64.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Oklahoma State vs Arizona State | +5.0L21–42 | 57.0 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Oklahoma State at TCU | +10.5L13–38 | 68.5 | L13–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech | +5.0L48–56 | 63.5 | L48–56 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Oklahoma State at Colorado | +14.5L0–52 | 66.5 | L0–52 | U | N |
Kansas State 2024 Schedule
Kansas State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Kansas State vs UT Martin | -36.5W41–6 | 56.5 | W41–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Kansas State at Tulane | -8.5W34–27 | 47.5 | W34–27 | O | N |
| Fri 9/13 | Kansas State vs Arizona | -7.0W31–7 | 58.0 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Kansas State at BYU | -7.5L9–38 | 49.5 | L9–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Kansas State vs Oklahoma State | -6.0W42–20 | 58.0 | W42–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Kansas State at Colorado | -3.5W31–28 | 54.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Kansas State at West Virginia | -2.5W45–18 | 56.5 | W45–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Kansas State vs Kansas | -10.0W29–27 | 56.5 | W29–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Kansas State at Houston | -12.5L19–24 | 46.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Kansas State vs Arizona State | -7.5L14–24 | 51.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Kansas State vs Cincinnati | -7.5W41–15 | 54.5 | W41–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Kansas State at Iowa State | +2.5L21–29 | 51.5 | L21–29 | U | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Kansas State vs Rutgers | -7.5W44–41 | 51.5 | W44–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oklahoma State Edge
Oklahoma State +0.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
68.8 — 10.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 22
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oklahoma State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
166–79 (68%)
· Yr 20 at school
OC
Kasey Dunn
Yr 3
#1
DC
Bryan Nardo
Yr 1
#1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
39–24 (62%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Conor Riley
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Klanderman
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

