Kansas at Kansas State Week 9 College Football Matchup Kansas at Kansas State Matchup - Week 9
Sun, Oct 27 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Away
27 29
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas
22
Kansas State
32
P&R Line Kansas State -10
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kansas State -10 · O/U 56.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -10
O/U 56.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas 2024 Schedule
Kansas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Kansas vs Lindenwood-48.5W48–362.5W48–3UN
Sat 9/7Kansas at Illinois-4.5L17–2358.5L17–23UN
Fri 9/13Kansas vs UNLV-7.0L20–2357.0L20–23UN
Sat 9/21Kansas at West Virginia+1.5L28–3256.0L28–32ON
Sat 9/28Kansas vs TCU-1.5L27–3858.5L27–38ON
Sat 10/5Kansas at Arizona State+2.5L31–3550.0L31–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Kansas vs Houston-4.5W42–1445.5W42–14OY
Sat 10/26Kansas at Kansas State+10.0L27–2956.5L27–29UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Kansas vs Iowa State+2.5W45–3650.5W45–36OY
Sat 11/16Kansas at BYU+3.0W17–1355.5W17–13UY
Sat 11/23Kansas vs Colorado+2.5W37–2159.0W37–21UY
Sat 11/30Kansas at Baylor-2.5L17–4562.5L17–45UN
Kansas State 2024 Schedule
Kansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kansas State vs UT Martin-36.5W41–656.5W41–6UN
Sat 9/7Kansas State at Tulane-8.5W34–2747.5W34–27ON
Fri 9/13Kansas State vs Arizona-7.0W31–758.0W31–7UY
Sat 9/21Kansas State at BYU-7.5L9–3849.5L9–38UN
Sat 9/28Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-6.0W42–2058.0W42–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kansas State at Colorado-3.5W31–2854.5W31–28ON
Sat 10/19Kansas State at West Virginia-2.5W45–1856.5W45–18OY
Sat 10/26Kansas State vs Kansas-10.0W29–2756.5W29–27UN
Sat 11/2Kansas State at Houston-12.5L19–2446.5L19–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Kansas State vs Arizona State-7.5L14–2451.5L14–24UN
Sat 11/23Kansas State vs Cincinnati-7.5W41–1554.5W41–15OY
Sat 11/30Kansas State at Iowa State+2.5L21–2951.5L21–29UN
Thu 12/26Kansas State vs Rutgers-7.5W44–4151.5W44–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas #9
+0.429
Kansas State #17
+0.533
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #17
+0.620
Kansas State #36
+0.631
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas #54
0.171
Kansas State #50
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #11
+8.222
Kansas State #53
+7.907
Kansas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas #16
+0.840
Kansas State #55
+0.885
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas #132
74.7
Kansas State #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas
-0.3
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Kansas
15.2
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas
15.5
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas #64
0.33
Kansas State #21
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #20
0.50
Kansas State #27
0.67
Kansas State +1.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas #1
52.7
Kansas State #1
58.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #13
22.7
Kansas State #49
23.3
Kansas State +5.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
17–21 (45%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Jeff Grimes Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
39–24 (62%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Conor Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself