Cincinnati at Kansas State Week 13 College Football Matchup Cincinnati at Kansas State Matchup - Week 13
Sun, Nov 24 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Cincinnati✈ 646 mi-1 hr TZ
15 41
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Cincinnati
19
KSU -7.5
Kansas State
34
P&R Line Kansas State -14.5
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -7.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Cincinnati has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Cincinnati entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -7.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Kansas State 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Cincinnati 2nd straight Road Game
Cincinnati 2024 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Cincinnati vs Towson-33.5W38–2056.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/7Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh+2.5L27–2862.5L27–28UY
Sat 9/14Cincinnati at Miami (OH)-3.5W27–1647.5W27–16UY
Sat 9/21Cincinnati vs Houston-4.0W34–047.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/28Cincinnati at Texas Tech+3.0L41–4460.0L41–44OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Cincinnati at UCF+2.0W19–1358.0W19–13UY
Sat 10/19Cincinnati vs Arizona State-5.5W24–1451.0W24–14UY
Sat 10/26Cincinnati at Colorado+6.0L23–3457.0L23–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Cincinnati vs West Virginia-5.5L24–3154.5L24–31ON
Sat 11/16Cincinnati at Iowa State+7.0L17–3452.5L17–34UN
Sat 11/23Cincinnati at Kansas State+7.5L15–4154.5L15–41ON
Sat 11/30Cincinnati vs TCU+2.5L13–2058.5L13–20UN
Kansas State 2024 Schedule
Kansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kansas State vs UT Martin-36.5W41–656.5W41–6UN
Sat 9/7Kansas State at Tulane-8.5W34–2747.5W34–27ON
Fri 9/13Kansas State vs Arizona-7.0W31–758.0W31–7UY
Sat 9/21Kansas State at BYU-7.5L9–3849.5L9–38UN
Sat 9/28Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-6.0W42–2058.0W42–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kansas State at Colorado-3.5W31–2854.5W31–28ON
Sat 10/19Kansas State at West Virginia-2.5W45–1856.5W45–18OY
Sat 10/26Kansas State vs Kansas-10.0W29–2756.5W29–27UN
Sat 11/2Kansas State at Houston-12.5L19–2446.5L19–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Kansas State vs Arizona State-7.5L14–2451.5L14–24UN
Sat 11/23Kansas State vs Cincinnati-7.5W41–1554.5W41–15OY
Sat 11/30Kansas State at Iowa State+2.5L21–2951.5L21–29UN
Thu 12/26Kansas State vs Rutgers-7.5W44–4151.5W44–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Cincinnati #59
+0.314
Kansas State #17
+0.478
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #63
+0.503
Kansas State #36
+0.568
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #67
0.162
Kansas State #50
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #118
+6.869
Kansas State #53
+7.583
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Cincinnati #43
+0.806
Kansas State #55
+0.862
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Cincinnati #124
73.6
Kansas State #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Cincinnati
-1.3
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Cincinnati
13.7
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Cincinnati
15.0
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Cincinnati Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Cincinnati #38
1.44
Kansas State #21
1.22
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Cincinnati #73
0.78
Kansas State #27
0.67
Cincinnati +0.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Cincinnati Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Cincinnati #1
57.8
Kansas State #1
49.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Cincinnati #66
26.3
Kansas State #49
32.5
Cincinnati +8.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
91.4 — 4.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 26
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Cincinnati. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brad Glenn Yr 2 #1
DC Nate Fuqua Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
39–24 (62%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Conor Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself