Kansas State at BYU Week 4 College Football Matchup Kansas State at BYU Matchup - Week 4
Sun, Sep 22 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 LaVell Edwards Stadium Provo, UT · Turf · 63,725 cap
Kansas State✈ 802 mi-1 hr TZ
9 38
Final
BYU
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
24
BYU +7.5
BYU
27
P&R Line BYU -2.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kansas State -7.5 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kansas State, while Game Control favors BYU. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
BYU wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -7.5
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas State 2024 Schedule
Kansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kansas State vs UT Martin-36.5W41–656.5W41–6UN
Sat 9/7Kansas State at Tulane-8.5W34–2747.5W34–27ON
Fri 9/13Kansas State vs Arizona-7.0W31–758.0W31–7UY
Sat 9/21Kansas State at BYU-7.5L9–3849.5L9–38UN
Sat 9/28Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-6.0W42–2058.0W42–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kansas State at Colorado-3.5W31–2854.5W31–28ON
Sat 10/19Kansas State at West Virginia-2.5W45–1856.5W45–18OY
Sat 10/26Kansas State vs Kansas-10.0W29–2756.5W29–27UN
Sat 11/2Kansas State at Houston-12.5L19–2446.5L19–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Kansas State vs Arizona State-7.5L14–2451.5L14–24UN
Sat 11/23Kansas State vs Cincinnati-7.5W41–1554.5W41–15OY
Sat 11/30Kansas State at Iowa State+2.5L21–2951.5L21–29UN
Thu 12/26Kansas State vs Rutgers-7.5W44–4151.5W44–41ON
BYU 2024 Schedule
BYU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31BYU vs Southern Illinois-29
Fri 9/6BYU at SMU+12.5W18–1555.5W18–15UY
Sat 9/14BYU at Wyoming-9.5W34–1440.5W34–14OY
Sat 9/21BYU vs Kansas State+7.5W38–949.5W38–9UY
Sat 9/28BYU at Baylor+3.0W34–2847.0W34–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12BYU vs Arizona-3.0W41–1948.5W41–19OY
Fri 10/18BYU vs Oklahoma State-8.5W38–3553.0W38–35ON
Sat 10/26BYU at UCF+2.5W37–2453.5W37–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9BYU at Utah-3.5W22–2140.5W22–21ON
Sat 11/16BYU vs Kansas-3.0L13–1755.5L13–17UN
Sat 11/23BYU at Arizona State+3.5L23–2849.0L23–28ON
Sat 11/30BYU vs Houston-9.5W30–1839.5W30–18OY
Sat 12/28BYU vs Colorado+3.0W36–1455.5W36–14UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #17
+0.427
BYU #51
+0.327
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #36
+0.453
BYU #60
+0.507
BYU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #50
0.172
BYU #49
0.174
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
BYU Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #53
+7.866
BYU #88
+7.271
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #55
+0.854
BYU #44
+0.806
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #104
72.4
BYU #13
68.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
BYU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
BYU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
BYU
14.5
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
BYU
21.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
BYU
7.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #21
1.50
BYU #22
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #27
1.00
BYU #3
0.00
Kansas State +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? BYU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
59.9
BYU #1
70.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #49
23.9
BYU #20
13.7
BYU +10.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
39–24 (62%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Conor Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
BYU
Kalani Sitake #1
61–41 (60%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Aaron Roderick Yr 3 #1
DC Jay Hill Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself