Arizona at Kansas State Week 3 College Football Matchup Arizona at Kansas State Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 14 2024 · Week 3 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Arizona✈ 936 mi+2 hr TZ
Away
7 31
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arizona
18
KSU -7
Kansas State
39
P&R Line Kansas State -21
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -7 · O/U 58.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arizona, while Game Control favors Kansas State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
80.6%
Arizona wins
Strong
Game Control
50.6%
Kansas State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -7
O/U 58.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona 2024 Schedule
Arizona's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona vs New Mexico-28.0W61–3960.0W61–39ON
Sat 9/7Arizona vs Northern Arizona-43.0W22–1065.0W22–10UN
Fri 9/13Arizona at Kansas State+7.0L7–3158.0L7–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Arizona at Utah+7.5W23–1047.0W23–10UY
Sat 10/5Arizona vs Texas Tech-6.0L22–2864.0L22–28UN
Sat 10/12Arizona at BYU+3.0L19–4148.5L19–41ON
Sat 10/19Arizona vs Colorado-2.5L7–3457.5L7–34UN
Sat 10/26Arizona vs West Virginia-5.5L26–3151.5L26–31ON
Sat 11/2Arizona at UCF+6.5L12–5655.0L12–56ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Arizona vs Houston-1.0W27–346.5W27–3UY
Sat 11/23Arizona at TCU+10.5L28–4960.0L28–49ON
Sat 11/30Arizona vs Arizona State+7.5L7–4952.5L7–49ON
Kansas State 2024 Schedule
Kansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kansas State vs UT Martin-36.5W41–656.5W41–6UN
Sat 9/7Kansas State at Tulane-8.5W34–2747.5W34–27ON
Fri 9/13Kansas State vs Arizona-7.0W31–758.0W31–7UY
Sat 9/21Kansas State at BYU-7.5L9–3849.5L9–38UN
Sat 9/28Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-6.0W42–2058.0W42–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kansas State at Colorado-3.5W31–2854.5W31–28ON
Sat 10/19Kansas State at West Virginia-2.5W45–1856.5W45–18OY
Sat 10/26Kansas State vs Kansas-10.0W29–2756.5W29–27UN
Sat 11/2Kansas State at Houston-12.5L19–2446.5L19–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Kansas State vs Arizona State-7.5L14–2451.5L14–24UN
Sat 11/23Kansas State vs Cincinnati-7.5W41–1554.5W41–15OY
Sat 11/30Kansas State at Iowa State+2.5L21–2951.5L21–29UN
Thu 12/26Kansas State vs Rutgers-7.5W44–4151.5W44–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arizona #93
+0.256
Kansas State #17
+0.537
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arizona #88
+0.460
Kansas State #36
+0.643
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arizona #99
0.143
Kansas State #50
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arizona #101
+7.073
Kansas State #53
+8.630
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arizona #117
+0.745
Kansas State #55
+0.885
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arizona #104
72.4
Kansas State #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Even
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arizona
9.6
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Arizona
21.5
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arizona
11.9
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arizona Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arizona #58
3.00
Kansas State #21
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona #114
1.00
Kansas State #27
2.00
Arizona +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arizona #1
54.2
Kansas State #1
55.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona #121
19.9
Kansas State #49
28.0
Kansas State +1.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
69.0 — 15.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 24
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arizona
Brent Brennan #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dino Babers Yr 1 #1
DC Duane Akina Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
39–24 (62%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Conor Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself